Yesterday at 19:57
The vote was organized by Moscow, intending to annex the Ukrainian territories. Urgent mobilization, which is now being carried out … All this has its reason. Main, main, which explains everything. And haste, and threats “if anything” to use nuclear weapons.
That’s just what? Where will all this lead? How is this connected with the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian army? And if there are new Western sanctions, will they be able to influence the course of the Kremlin? These topics were analyzed by the editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian foreign broadcasting TV channel FREEDOM Oleksiy Matsuka.
Putin wants to force Kyiv to surrender without a fight
So, it became a reality. To come up with some kind of effective plan to disrupt the voting – even though they were looking for options in Kyiv – did not work. So-called “referendums” are still being held. First – what is called – “house bypass”, and then already on the plots.
In the Donbas, the question is about joining Russia as a region. And in the occupied territories of the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions – about turning the region into an independent state, and then – about joining. And the point is that Moscow wants to annex the Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Lugansk regions of Ukraine completely – within the administrative borders, and not within the boundaries of those territories that are captured by Russian troops. This immediately suggests that the Kremlin may try to seize these regions entirely since it formally declares them to be its part.
“Plots” are created in all major cities of Russia – and Crimea, counting on the votes of Ukrainian refugees who were forced to leave with the outbreak of the war. They offer to vote for everyone who has a Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson or Zaporizhzhya registration, even with expired passports. And this means that those who left Ukraine both 10 and 30 years ago will be able to vote.
There are no lists of these people; whoever comes will be brought in. That opens up the scope for any additions. And also, it gives Moscow the opportunity, in fact, for the first time to conduct a kind of census of Ukrainians now living in Russia or those territories that it intends to annex as a subject. Moreover, it is not clear what; in Russia, there are a lot of them – a republic, a territory, an oblast… For a part of the Zaporizhia region, the status of a “krai” seems to be proposed.
In general, everything is done in a hurry, as they say – on the knee. The real result is poorly understood even by the organizers; desired – if necessary, apparently, “draw”. And the topic of “fraternal peoples” will be closed at this point. They will begin to say that there is only “one people”, which will entail the complete assimilation of Ukrainians who find themselves in the occupied territories.
What is interesting here is that Washington had intelligence data and about Russia’s desire to hold a vote in the Kharkiv region, at least in some settlements. To declare the entire region as their own. The counteroffensive thwarted these plans. And it seems that if these pseudo-referendums were being prepared, say, by the end of the year (and such dates were also discussed), then there would simply be nowhere to hold them!
While the Russian army “slipped”, the vote was also postponed, hoping to capture more. And now, on the contrary, they are in a hurry. Replacing military goals with political ones. Indeed, Putin is losing, but with the help of sham referendums, he wants to “pull out” the victory. At least in the eyes of the public. Certainly, Russia cannot lose!
And it seems that from now on, open warfare can completely become hidden, hybrid – political scientists suggest.
“Putin does not want to win this war on the battlefield. Putin wants to force Kyiv to surrender without a fight,” – political analyst Tatyana Stanovaya.
What is meant? The Kremlin realized that they were not capable of winning the war on the battlefield. This means that they plan to act asymmetrically. By using the entire arsenal of threats to the West, Ukraine, and even their citizens, making mobilization such a “horror story”.
This is the highest bid! In essence, the system rebooted the war. If February 24 was a milestone for Ukraine (after all, at that moment people’s lives were divided into “before” and “after”), then September 21 became the point of no return for Russia. The country will have blurred borders, all the people will be drawn into the war, and the situation will be on the verge of uncontrollability.
Sanctions or weapons?
It is already clear that the so-called “referendums” will lead to a new wave of Western sanctions. But is there still a reserve for such restrictions and, most importantly, will they seriously hit Russia?
From an official from the Obama administration, we unofficially heard the opinion that the sanctions resource is almost exhausted. Entered everything possible. Yes, you can go “in breadth”. The West can expand the “black lists” (including, for example, the organizers of referendums); yes, you can add new Russian enterprises, banks, and private companies to them. All this, as they say in Washington, “increases the level of pain.” But it doesn’t solve the problem. After all, back in February, from the very beginning of the war, the United States declared: we are imposing sanctions to stop the advance of Russian troops, to stop the war. As a result, the “level of pain”, no doubt, is growing, only the “pain threshold” has not been passed.
The G7 countries, through the mouths of their foreign ministers, condemned the idea of holding pseudo-referendums. And the solidarity position of the leading Western countries is a signal to other states not to recognize the annexation.
But in Kyiv, they believe that this is not enough. This position was publicly voiced at the UN by Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
“No words of condemnation can stop the Russian army. Only the Ukrainian army, equipped with modern weapons from our partners, can stop it. The best way to stop Putin is to provide weapons to Ukraine,” – Dmytro Kuleba said.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal spoke about this informally to the first persons of the partner countries in New York, posing the question point-blank. According to Western diplomatic sources, Kyiv believes that the answer to the Duma’s decision to annex Ukrainian territories on the same day should be the declaration of Russia as a country sponsoring terrorism by the United States. The Biden administration was not ready for this until recently.
In parallel, Kyiv proposes to launch two processes. One is the confiscation of Russian assets frozen and seized abroad. The “first sign” is already there: such a decision was made at the legislative level by Canada. And in Kyiv they hope that the United States will continue, followed by the EU countries.
“The frozen Russian assets that we know about are between $300 and $500 billion. And, of course, this is the key idea for the future restoration of Ukraine – to get them! If they do not want to give it away voluntarily in the form of reparations, then the countries must make a decision and confiscate their assets in favor of Ukraine,” – Denys Shmygal.
The US Department of Justice has already applied to Congress with a proposal to legalize such a mechanism in the United States.
The second way to reason with Russia is to take away its main means of deterrence, the right of veto in the Security Council. Biden personally spoke about this from the UN rostrum. He supported the increase in the number of states in the Security Council and the idea of limiting the use of the right of veto. But here it’s slow. On the one hand, the organization is bureaucratic, any reforms take years. On the other hand, the word “Russia” cannot be included in the decision; the right of veto must be limited for any countries involved in conflicts. Do not let them veto decisions of the Security Council regarding these conflicts. But then the United States would also lose this right – if they conduct, for example, a military campaign. How can Washington do this?
So the calculation is no longer on sanctions, although they will be. They will hit on other “weak spots” of Russia. But just how will this affect the course of the war – the confrontation of the real, not the geopolitical?
Should Ukraine continue the counterattack?
Ukraine has chosen its own version of the reaction to the current so-called “referendums”:
- political. Zelensky said that such a move by Moscow closes the possibility for negotiations.
- legal. Deputy Prime Minister – Minister for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories Irina Vereshchuk warned: participation in the “referendum” can be considered as “an encroachment on the territorial integrity and inviolability of Ukraine.” And she urged people not to participate either in the organization or in the voting itself, and if possible go out.
“If you are warned that they will come with ballot boxes, then you need to change your place of residence, at least for the duration of the “referendum”. If they call you, then you need not to give your data, since the enemy will use the lists, ” – explained Iryna Vereshchuk.
- informational. Kyiv warns that Russia will go to mobilize the inhabitants of the occupied territories, and this seriously hinders the desire to “embrace Moscow,” even if someone has it there.
“They can forcibly mobilize at least 80,000 people from the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions,” – Anatoliy Stelmakh, Deputy Minister for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine.
In response to this, Russian statements urgently followed – they say that there will be no mobilization and conscription in the army for several years in the “new territories”. But how will it turn out when everything has already happened …
Will Ukraine go for counter mobilization? Not excluded. At the end of August, Defense Minister Reznikov said that according to the plan, those who were needed by the army had already been called up. But if an additional 300 thousand people are being drafted into the army in Russia, then Ukraine will also have to reach some kind of numerical parity. It is necessary at least to protect the liberated territories.
What will play into the hands of Kyiv is that all these pseudo-referendums will allow Ukraine to ask the West for more military support in order not to slow down the counter-offensive. But so far, no one can say how the “nuclear factor” and all these “leaks” (quite possibly deliberate) will affect that Putin, they say, decided to use nuclear weapons. Will this force the Ukrainian advance to be stopped due to increased risks?
For his part, Putin can stop at the frontiers that we have now. And try to dictate the terms of the negotiations in the “new legal status” – suggesting: we will take out what has already “become Russia” (in quotation marks, of course) – out of brackets, we will only talk about the conditions that we will not go any further.
Neither Ukraine nor the West will be satisfied with such a statement of the question. Are there any other cards Putin has up his sleeve? If the pseudo-referenda story goes according to Russia’s plan, will it be able to repeat this in other regions of the post-Soviet countries where Russians or Russian speakers live? Will there be the same scenario for Transnistria, Abkhazia, and Ossetia? From Moscow’s point of view, this would “blur” the problem, create new hotbeds of tension, and thus remove the focus of attention only from Ukraine.
Read also: Operational information on the Russian invasion (September 26)
