Why Ukraine’s Victory Matters for International Law

A general view of the exterior of the International Criminal Court in The Hague, Netherlands, March 12, 2025. Source: AP Photo.

Russia’s war on Ukraine is a crucible for the international legal order; a Ukrainian victory could reaffirm sovereignty and collective security. This conflict poses the most serious test of international law since 1945. Russia’s aggression—marked by grave war crimes, violations of sovereignty, and open contempt for the UN Charter—has cast doubt on the system’s credibility. If the perpetrator escapes accountability, international law risks irrelevance and a return to “might makes right.” Ukraine’s success, therefore, matters not only to Ukrainians but to the integrity of the global security architecture.

Read more in the article by Bohdan Popov, Head of Digital at the United Ukraine Think Tank, communications specialist and public figure.

Firstly, the expert explains that the UN Charter and the Geneva Conventions were designed to prevent a return to the horrors of the world wars. Yet Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows that even a nuclear-armed UN Security Council member can brazenly break the rules and dodge accountability. That failure sets a perilous example: unless the aggression is stopped, other authoritarian regimes may copy it. From Taiwan to the Balkans and parts of Africa, the world could slide into a chain of “small wars” if international law is reduced to fiction.

Secondly, the author argues that a central pillar of Ukraine’s diplomacy is the push for a special international tribunal to prosecute Russia’s crime of aggression. The EU, the Council of Europe, and numerous partners back the idea. In 2023, the International Centre for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine (ICPA) was created in The Hague under Eurojust to gather evidence and prepare future indictments. By 2024–2025, more than 40 countries had signaled support for a tribunal—either as a standalone body or a hybrid court under the Council of Europe. Momentum is real: there is agreement that the tribunal should have a mandate to try Russia’s top political leadership for aggression. This is crucial because the International Criminal Court (ICC) can pursue war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide, but not aggression without a UN Security Council referral—where Russia wields a veto. Ukraine’s proposal offers a way around that impasse.

Thirdly, Popov emphasizes that if Ukraine prevails, it will demonstrate that international law has teeth. The world would have a precedent in which an aggressor is defeated and the victim achieves justice, renewing confidence in sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the ban on the use of force. For the EU, the United States, and other partners, it would validate investments in international institutions.

Finally, the specialist concludes that Russia’s war is not a mere regional dispute; it is reshaping the global order for decades. Ukraine’s endurance would warn would-be aggressors that international law is defended and collective security can function. If the aggressor goes unpunished, no nation can feel secure. Ukraine’s victory is about more than restoring borders—it is about safeguarding the rules on which modern civilization rests. That is why today’s fight in Ukraine is not only for Kyiv or Kharkiv, but for the future of international law itself.

Read the full article by Bohdan Popov on The Gaze: Why Ukraine’s Victory Matters for International Law

Read also: The Great Realignment: How the War in Ukraine Reshaped the Global South