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Russia has the capacity to fire up to 100 ballistic missiles at Ukraine each month while maintaining a steady level of reserves, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence.
The assessment was provided by the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry in response to a request from Ukrainska Pravda, as reported by UATV English.
Following recent large-scale Russian strikes that involved numerous ballistic missiles, Ukrainska Pravda inquired about current Russian production levels.
HUR stated that Russia’s defense industry plans to produce up to 700 9M723 ballistic missiles for the Iskander system in 2026—the same figure as last year. Monthly output is estimated at around 55 to 60 missiles.
Production of RM-48U missiles for the S-300PM and S-400 systems—also used in ground-attack roles—has more than doubled. Over 480 of these missiles are expected to be manufactured in 2026, compared with more than 200 in 2025. Current monthly production is reported to reach up to 50 units.
Additionally, Russia intends to manufacture up to 60 Kinzhal air-launched hypersonic ballistic missiles this year.
Based on these production figures, HUR estimates that Russia can deploy up to 100 ballistic missiles per month against Ukrainian targets without significantly reducing its stockpiles.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking at a NATO–Ukraine Council meeting in Kyiv, offered an even higher estimate, stating that Russia may be capable of producing approximately 120 ballistic missiles per month—a figure referring exclusively to ballistic weapons.
Zelensky also noted that a major Russian strike on June 2, 2026, resulted in 23 fatalities in Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials emphasize that ballistic missiles remain one of the most serious threats in the war and reiterate the urgent need for additional air defense systems capable of intercepting such weapons.
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