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U.S. President Donald Trump risks making a “historic mistake” if his negotiations to end the war in Ukraine lead to the United States recognizing Russia’s claims to Crimea and other occupied territories, according to Paweł Kowal, head of Poland’s Council for Cooperation with Ukraine, which advises Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government on Ukraine policy.
Kowal’s comments were cited by Financial Times.
According to him, a “red line” will be crossed for Poland and the rest of Central Europe if Russia’s expanded borders are recognized legally.
Kowal emphasized that there is a clear difference between “temporary solutions” to halt hostilities in Ukraine and fulfilling “Russian expectations of recognizing Crimea, Donbas, or other parts of Ukraine,” which would be a historic mistake.
He warned that if this creates a precedent that allows the Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin to expand an “imperial Russia,” it will be “horrific.”
“After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia recognized Ukraine with its borders, including Crimea and Donbas, and that is the foundation of international law. Legal guarantees of borders in Central Europe are also among the main guarantees for preserving peace in the region, as our historical experience shows,” he said.
At the same time, Kowal expressed confidence that Trump will ultimately not allow Russia to control Ukrainian territory de jure, and instead will acknowledge the ongoing threat posed by Putin.
He also believes that Trump will not risk depriving American companies of the opportunity to invest in Ukraine’s reconstruction after the war ends, without providing strong security guarantees sought by Kyiv and its European allies.
“For politicians, it’s easy to separate political guarantees from business guarantees and from military guarantees, but if real money is to be invested in Ukraine, serious American guarantees will be demanded,” Kowal said.
Recently, media reports suggested that Trump is considering recognizing Russian-occupied Crimea as Russian territory as part of a potential ceasefire deal.
Commenting on these reports, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Trump has not raised the issue of Russian-occupied Crimea in their conversations.
However, Zelenskyy has previously acknowledged that territorial issues will be on the table during future peace negotiations to end the war.
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