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The United States has warned Poland that Russia may be preparing an armed provocation on Polish territory aimed at testing NATO’s resolve and disrupting Western military support for Ukraine, according to The Telegraph, UATV English reports.
Citing Polish and allied sources, the report says Moscow could target critical infrastructure with missiles or drones or send Russian troops across the Polish border as part of a limited incursion designed to trigger a political crisis rather than a full-scale military confrontation.
According to the report, the objective would be to escalate tensions within NATO and pressure Western allies into suspending military assistance to Ukraine. Sources believe such a scenario could be attempted within the coming months.
Polish outlet Onet, citing sources close to President Karol Nawrocki, reported that Washington has repeatedly warned Warsaw about the possibility of such an operation.
Security officials interviewed by the publication said another possible scenario involves a small group of Russian troops crossing NATO’s eastern border. Other options reportedly include drone strikes on critical infrastructure, such as power plants, or simulated air attacks intended to force Poland to activate its air defense systems.
According to the report, Russia could attempt to portray any border incursion as accidental, blaming GPS interference or claiming its forces crossed the border while conducting a rescue operation for a helicopter.
The report says Moscow may calculate that Poland would avoid opening fire on Russian or Belarusian troops and instead enter negotiations under pressure from the United States. If Russian forces later withdrew following talks rather than military action, the Kremlin could present the outcome as a political victory.
One of Russia’s potential demands during such negotiations could be the suspension of Western military assistance to Ukraine in exchange for withdrawing its forces from Polish territory, according to the report.
Sources cited by The Telegraph said the plans are also being discussed in Moscow and could involve forces operating from Russia’s Kaliningrad region or from Belarus. The report adds that Russia could attempt to blame Ukraine for the provocation.
Polish defense officials acknowledged that the threat of a Russian provocation exists but stressed that Poland has already conducted military exercises to demonstrate NATO’s readiness to respond decisively to any aggression.
