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The stabilization of the frontline and the effectiveness of Ukraine’s armed forces could create conditions under which the Kremlin may be forced to consider a ceasefire, according to Viacheslav Potapenko, Deputy Director of the National Institute for Strategic Studies.
Speaking on the FREEДOM TV, Potapenko argued that the military situation has become more favorable for Ukraine, UATV English informs.
“Objectively, the military situation on the frontline has stabilized. Regardless of what Putin says, Russia currently has no significant offensive successes. Ukraine is using drones very effectively in defense, as well as long-range drones to disrupt Russian rear areas, creating serious problems for the enemy. There is now a rough parity on the battlefield, with a slight advantage on Ukraine’s side. This is a relatively favorable moment for Ukraine to reach a ceasefire. Russia is unable to achieve the results it expected, while Ukraine retains the ability to effectively contain the enemy and inflict painful strikes on its infrastructure and logistics,” Potapenko said.
He added that European countries are increasingly leaning toward a strategy of long-term containment of Russia rather than continuing a large-scale war.
“If Europeans conclude that a cold peace — or even a new Cold War — is preferable to the risk of direct military confrontation with Russia, then such a scenario becomes quite likely. I am convinced that the United Kingdom, France, and Germany absolutely do not want to fight a war on the territory of the Baltic states or Poland,” he said.
At the same time, Potapenko believes that a comprehensive peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia remains unlikely under current conditions.
“A peace treaty is virtually impossible at this stage. Russia will demand recognition of the occupied territories, changes to legislation, and the resolution of numerous legal issues. However, a ceasefire agreement appears entirely realistic,” he concluded.
Earlier, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated that the stabilization of the frontline and the combat effectiveness of Ukraine’s armed forces significantly strengthen Kyiv’s position at the negotiating table and help reject Russian ultimatums.
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