How Russia will answer to the explosions in the annexed Crimea? What would Belarus face in the event of massive missile strikes on Ukraine? What provocations is the Russian army preparing for the Independence Day of Ukraine? UA TV channel talked about these issues with Mykola Malomuzh, General of the Army of Ukraine, ex-head of the Foreign Intelligence Service.
How can the Russian Federation respond to the explosions in annexed Crimea?
First of all, Russian Federation now does not want to show its weakness, especially in the Crimean direction. Putin has guaranteed that no territory will be subject to UAF attacks, and they have air defense systems that will provide reliable protection.
Crimea is a landmark for Putin, and therefore all the operations that were carried out on this territory, especially the explosions at the airfield and explosions today in warehouses near Dzhankoy can have consequences.
We cannot directly state now, but our sabotage groups and our agents, who are successfully working on the peninsula, worked.
Will the Russians now carry out a retaliation operation? Sure. They are now preparing an operation for August 24, when Ukraine celebrates Independence Day. This information is already known from operational sources. Therefore, they are concentrating all their forces from the territory of Crimea to the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, to the east of Ukraine and to the territory of Belarus.
Belarus is one of the powerful centers for the concentration of missiles, aviation, and possibly delivery vehicles. Today, large deliveries of missile systems to this base are already underway.
Therefore, we expect new missile strikes and, possibly, offensive operations on a large-scale front: both in the east, and the strengthening of the grouping in the Kherson and Zaporizhia directions. There they have now activated the main forces, they are moving equipment. Already several hundred units of military equipment are moving to the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions in order not only to hold positions, but also, possibly, to carry out counterattacks.
But I think that now it is the entire component of the Russian armed forces and even the reserves that will be brought up before August 24th. On the one hand, it’s like a symbolic format in order not only to prevent us from celebrating the holiday, but, on the other hand, to show that they already have very serious intentions regarding the seizure of new territories.
Do you see a serious offensive potential, and not the one that comes up with the Russian Ministry of Defense, does it really exist?
At the moment, the Russian Federation does not have a large offensive potential. We have clear evidence that these were colossal losses in the eastern direction. And so the Russian Federation was forced to pause to mobilize resources and, of course, first of all, military personnel. They ordered each region to create a new battalion. They are now trying to form new 40-45 thousand to strengthen their positions both in the east and in the south.
Many experts say that in October, when the active rainy season begins, the Russian and Ukrainian armies will remain in exactly the positions they can reach until November. What do you think about this?
The equipment used by Russia is usually outdated. New samples are used pointwise – these are missiles and individual systems that are used on the battlefield. Therefore, there are no systemic models for delivering strikes against our armed forces and even against cities. There are missile systems that destroy infrastructure, civilian objects, but this does not bring success. They are not high-precision, they do not destroy exactly the objects that they would like – for example, the supply of weapons and foreign-made equipment. There are no successes here, and their equipment is exhausted, even rockets.
If we are talking about offensive operations, then we are now working closely on the rear, in those areas that are now a priority for replenishment of supplies. For example, the Kherson direction – columns are moving, ammunition, respectively, they are trying to concentrate in certain places, we identify them. It is destroyed systemically.
Belarus is preparing for a massive missile attack on Ukraine, which is evidenced by the presence of a huge amount of military equipment on the territory of Belarus. Does this mean preparation for August 24?
They are definitely preparing for a counterattack, it will be complex. This is an attempt to once again intimidate Ukraine with a massive strike, and most importantly, to intimidate the civilian population so that we demand peace and negotiations.