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Russia is stepping up its information war against the West as a response to Ukraine’s successful long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries and other infrastructure targets.
This assessment came from Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces’ intelligence center, during a Friday briefing at Estonia’s Ministry of Defense, ERR reports, UATV English informs.
Kiviselg noted that Russia has been reacting sharply to Ukraine’s effective deep strikes, deploying hostile anti-Western rhetoric filled with threats and propaganda. The central claim pushed by Moscow is that Ukraine’s battlefield successes are only possible because of Western assistance.
He added that this hostile narrative campaign has extended to attacks on the Baltic states and Finland, with Russia alleging these countries are letting Ukraine use their airspace to strike Russian territory. Moscow has also spread claims — without basis — that the Baltic states plan to expel their Russian-speaking populations en masse, and that nuclear weapons might be stationed in Lithuania or Finland.
Additionally, the Kremlin has periodically shifted its framing, describing the conflict not as a “special military operation” but as a full-scale war, pointing to the fact that the US and various European nations are providing Ukraine with intelligence, equipment, and weaponry.
According to Kiviselg, Russia’s Foreign Ministry has reinforced these narratives at the official level — on July 7, Grigory Lukyantsev, head of the ministry’s human rights and multilateral cooperation department, backed Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov’s claims by asserting that Baltic states are preparing to mass-deport Russian-speaking residents, a claim that appears to have no factual basis.
“These statements most likely serve the purpose of a coordinated information operation, with the probable aim of stoking a sense of threat in the West over potential escalation and eroding unity in continued support for Ukraine,” Kiviselg said.
He also placed recent public discussions about possible Russian provocations or military preparations near the Baltic states in this same context. “For now, this should be seen as part of Russia’s information war aimed at influencing Western public opinion. As before, we see no signs of Russian military preparations for an operation in the Baltic states or the wider region in the near future,” he added.
According to media reports, the United States reportedly warned Warsaw that Moscow is considering an armed provocation against Poland to “test NATO’s resolve.”
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has voiced concern about a potential Russian provocation aimed at testing NATO’s determination.
Prior to this, Latvian intelligence also reported that Russia is preparing possible provocations against the Baltic states or Poland — including drone attacks and other hybrid operations — intended to pressure NATO countries into halting their support for Ukraine.
Read also: Ukraine Strikes Ilsky Oil Refinery and Port Infrastructure in Southern Russia — CCD
