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Belarus could face preemptive strikes if it begins preparing for military aggression against Ukraine, according to Ukrainian military expert Ivan Tymochko.
Speaking in an interview with Ukrainian Radio, Tymochko, who heads the Council of Reservists of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, said any signs of an offensive buildup would trigger an immediate response, UATV English reports, citing Ukrinform.
“If Belarus starts concentrating forces and preparing for an attack, no one will wait — preemptive strikes will most likely follow,” he said, adding that both Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin are aware of these risks.
Tymochko emphasized that Belarus is poorly suited to serve as a staging ground for a large-scale offensive, citing its forested and swampy terrain and lack of strategic depth.
He also described the likelihood of Belarus entering the war as limited, suggesting that current threats are largely a form of political pressure.
“The probability of Belarus being drawn into the war is no more than blackmail,” he said.
According to the expert, the Belarusian armed forces — estimated at around 60,000 personnel — lack the capacity to conduct major offensive operations. He added that the Russian military presence in Belarus remains relatively small, at between 2,000 and 5,000 troops, and is insufficient to force Minsk into full-scale involvement.
However, Tymochko warned that smaller-scale provocations or sabotage operations from Belarusian territory remain possible.
His remarks come amid reports of ongoing Belarusian military exercises, including drills involving nuclear-capable systems, as well as growing concerns in Kyiv about increased coordination between Moscow and Minsk.
Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia is intensifying contacts with Alexander Lukashenko in an attempt to draw Belarus into new offensive operations, including potential attacks from Belarusian territory toward Ukraine’s Chernihiv and Kyiv regions or even against NATO countries. He also stressed that Ukraine is strengthening its defenses along the northern axis in response.
