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Russian forces are not capable of maintaining sufficient readiness to fight along all sections of the front: while they are still making gradual advances in the Pokrovsk direction, in the Sumy region they are getting bogged down amid Ukrainian counterattacks.
This is how George Barros, head of the Russia and Geospatial Intelligence Team at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), commented on the current situation in a statement to Ukrinform.
“The combat readiness of Russian troops varies across different parts of the theater of operations,” he noted.
According to the ISW representative, Russian forces in the Sumy region appear to be slowing down, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are carrying out counterattacks. This, he said, “indicates a relative lack of Russian combat power in that area.”
Meanwhile, in the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops continue to make small, incremental advances daily. It seems they are capable of sustaining such attacks in the short term.
At the same time, the expert reiterated his earlier assessment that Russia is finding it increasingly difficult to replenish its forces due to economic problems.
“It is unclear how Russian forces will maintain recruitment and force generation in the medium and long term, considering the economic difficulties in Russia,” he said.
In response to a question about missile and air strikes on Ukrainian cities and the effectiveness of new systems against enemy strike UAVs, the expert explained that there is not yet enough independent data for analysis.
However, he emphasized: “It’s very good that Ukrainian engineers are developing such systems, and I hope they prove to be highly effective. Success in this area could reduce the effectiveness of drones like the Shahed and Geran.”
At the same time, Barros noted that the interceptor drones being developed by Ukraine will not protect against Russian ballistic missiles. For that, he said, Ukraine is still forced to rely on Patriot missile defense systems from its partners.
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