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Since Russia is unable to achieve victory in the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin is looking for an alternative path to victory, and is currently viewing the Baltic region and Poland as the most likely next target.
As UATV English reports, this was stated by Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas on LRT.
According to him, the war in Ukraine is not unfolding as Russia planned. The Russians cannot win, and explosions are now occurring inside Russia itself, along with a fuel shortage. Russian society, Kaunas emphasized, is already questioning the Kremlin regime, asking why this is happening and where the promised victory is.
“The Kremlin, Putin, needs a new escalation, some kind of new victory, and in this case the nearest target is the Baltic region and Poland,” he said.
His statement came after Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, in an interview with the BNS agency, confirmed reports that had circulated in foreign media a few weeks earlier, according to which Russia was planning provocations in Poland or the Baltic states to test NATO’s unity.
According to the president, this assessment is based on intelligence data and concerns possible Russian attacks on critical infrastructure in the region, which could be carried out using either conventional military means or so-called hybrid tactics.
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski had earlier suggested that Russia could organize an operation under a “false flag” using drones of Ukrainian manufacture.
Meanwhile, Lithuania’s Chief of the General Staff, General Raimundas Vaikšnoras, said there is currently no obvious threat of conventional military aggression from Russia against Lithuania or other Baltic states, though provocations involving military means cannot be ruled out.
Media had previously reported that the United States reportedly passed a warning to Warsaw that Moscow is considering an armed provocation against Poland to “test NATO’s resolve.”
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