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The Kremlin is likely creating the legal and institutional conditions for a possible future mobilization while simultaneously preparing to respond to potential domestic unrest that such a move could trigger, according to the latest assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
ISW said Russia’s State Duma approved legislation on July 22 allowing individuals with unexpunged criminal convictions, including those convicted of drug trafficking and organized crime offenses, to sign military contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry during officially declared periods of mobilization.
Russian Deputy Defense Minister and head of the Defense Ministry’s Main Military-Political Directorate, Gen. Viktor Goremykin, said the legislation would expand the pool of citizens eligible for military service and support Russia’s recruitment efforts for the war against Ukraine in 2026.
Separately, Russia’s National Guard (Rosgvardia) on July 21 published proposed amendments that would broaden its authority to protect public order from unspecified “threats” during mobilization, martial law and wartime.
ISW noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed legislation in November 2025 allowing reserve personnel to be deployed to combat zones without declaring a general mobilization. At the time, the think tank assessed that the Kremlin was likely to use the law to conduct phased reserve call-ups.
“The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for declaring an official mobilization and potentially introducing martial law in Russia in anticipation of unrest, as mobilization remains deeply unpopular in Russian society,” ISW said.
The think tank added that any decision on mobilization ultimately remains a personal one for Putin and will likely depend on his assessment of the battlefield situation and the stability of his regime. ISW said it remains unclear whether the Kremlin intends to announce mobilization in the near future or what form such an announcement would take.
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