Today at 20:04
Russia could resort to provocations against the Baltic states or Poland if the Kremlin perceives that the war front is moving closer to Moscow and St. Petersburg, according to Western sources cited by The Guardian.
The report says concerns are growing among NATO’s eastern flank countries that Moscow may escalate hybrid activities as Ukraine’s long-range strikes continue targeting military and strategic facilities near the Russian capital and St. Petersburg, UATV English reports.
Earlier this week, Latvia’s intelligence service warned that it had observed signs Russia was preparing possible military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland. Officials stressed, however, that there were no indications of preparations for a full-scale attack.
A senior political source from a NATO member state expressed a similar assessment last week, saying intelligence services had received information suggesting Russian leader Vladimir Putin was “planning something against the Baltic states.”
According to the sources, the Kremlin may seek to test Washington’s commitment to NATO’s collective defense obligations toward Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania as Russia faces mounting difficulties in its war against Ukraine.
Latvia’s intelligence service assessed that while Russia lacks the capability to open a second front, it could instead launch hybrid attacks involving missiles, drones, or other actions intended to intimidate NATO members into reducing support for Ukraine.
A Western military source described the current period as particularly dangerous, warning that Moscow could take greater risks if Putin feels increasing pressure as the war moves closer to Russia’s major cities.
The concerns come as Russia’s battlefield advances in Ukraine have stalled, potentially prompting the Kremlin to pursue alternative strategies to shift the momentum of the war. Uncertainty over U.S. commitment to NATO following recent statements by President Donald Trump has also heightened anxiety among allies ahead of the Alliance’s summit in Ankara later this month.
The report notes that Russia’s relative weakness was highlighted this week after drone relay stations in Belarus, used to coordinate Russian strikes against Ukraine, reportedly ceased operating following Kyiv’s warning that they could become legitimate military targets.
Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been linked to multiple acts of sabotage and hybrid operations across Europe, including DHL parcel arson attacks in the UK, Poland, and Germany in 2024, as well as repeated drone incursions into Polish airspace.
Earlier, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski suggested that Russia could be preparing a false-flag provocation on its own territory.
