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The Kremlin is attempting to manipulate U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to normalize bilateral relations with Washington without first ending the war in Ukraine, according to a new assessment from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrinform reports.
The think tank points to remarks by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who on 18 September claimed that Trump aims to “remove the issue of Ukraine” from the U.S.–Russia agenda in order to “normalize” economic, technological, and other relations. Lavrov had earlier said that efforts to involve Russian leader Vladimir Putin in economic deals with the U.S. would not stop the war.
ISW analysts warn that Moscow wants Trump to separate the war in Ukraine from bilateral talks, particularly in the economic sphere. The Kremlin likely hopes to continue its aggression while weakening the impact of current and future Western sanctions, especially those targeting energy revenues that help finance the invasion.
The report also notes that Kremlin-linked Russian Direct Investment Fund CEO Kirill Dmitriev is being used to promote the idea of expanding U.S.–Russia business ties in an effort to secure concessions on Ukraine from the Trump administration.
Despite these maneuvers, ISW stresses that a Russian victory is far from inevitable. Ukrainian and Western partners could exploit key Russian vulnerabilities to force Putin into genuine negotiations. Russia’s battlefield gains in 2025 came at a high cost, with slow advances and disproportionately heavy losses relative to the small amount of captured territory.
Analysts further highlight Russia’s mismanaged wartime economy, marked by soaring military spending, rising inflation, and a severe labor shortage. Putin’s focus on defense production has strained civilian sectors, while Russia’s ability to finance the war still depends heavily on oil exports, which provide a large share of federal revenue.
Trump himself underscored these weaknesses on 18 September, stating that Russia is taking heavier losses than Ukraine and predicting that Putin would be forced to “exit” the war if global oil prices fall.
Earlier, Trump said he does not see the present as the right moment for new sanctions on Russia, but has not ruled out tougher pressure in the future.
