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Commander of the Latvian Armed Forces, Kaspars Pudāns, believes that Russia could exploit a “window of opportunity” and launch an invasion of the Baltic states before 2028.
He made the remarks in an interview with the Financial Times, UATV English reports.
According to the general, Russia seeks to capitalize on its advantage over NATO countries in drones and could attack one of the Baltic states before the end of 2028.
Pudāns noted that Moscow’s advantage lies not in superior technology, but in its ability to produce drones on a large scale and rapidly adapt them to wartime conditions.
“Their advantage is the scalability of drones. They are able to replenish stocks quickly and maintain large quantities at scale,” he explained.
The Latvian general warned that Russia could take advantage of Europe’s slow pace of rearmament, as most military modernization programs are not expected to take effect until around 2029.
“If I were in the Kremlin, I would say that if we are going to do something, we should do it before the end of 2028,” Pudāns said.
The head of Latvia’s military stressed that Russia currently lacks the forces necessary for a large-scale invasion while fighting continues in Ukraine, but said Moscow could quickly pose a greater threat if the war there comes to an end.
“We live with the assumption that aggression in some form could happen as early as tonight,” he said.
Other officials in the region have begun expressing concerns that Russia could strike earlier than previously expected and test the resilience of the Baltic states or other frontline NATO members.
“If you are Putin, there may be several reasons to try something sooner. First, Trump will remain in office for only two more years, and it is unclear whether his successor will be as constructive. Second, all European countries are increasing defense spending, so it may make sense to act before that happens,” a senior defense official from one of NATO’s eastern flank countries said.
Recently, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen expressed confidence that Russia is preparing for a new wave of aggression against European countries.
As previously reported, Carsten Breuer believes that Russia will be capable of attacking NATO in 2029 — or even earlier.
Meanwhile, Estonia’s intelligence service believes that Russia does not intend to launch a military attack against any NATO member this year or next year, but will continue rebuilding its armed forces.
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