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Majorities across the EU believe Russia to invade Ukraine in 2022, a recent European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) survey shows. Poles are among the most pessimistic nations – 73% of respondents believe the war is very likely or quite likely.
Unlike in 2014, Europeans view the conflict in Ukraine as a European crisis. Seventy-three percent of respondents in Poland see an invasion as likely. The same is true of 64 percent in Romania, 55 percent in Sweden, 52 percent in Germany, 51 percent in France and Italy, and a plurality of 44 percent in Finland. It seems that being neutral might take the fear out of military conflict.
In almost all surveyed countries, most respondents see NATO as the organization best positioned to defend Ukraine.
“While most Europeans still trust Nato to defend Europe, ‘Nato’ is no longer just another name for ‘the US’,” the authors said. “Europeans trust Nato to protect their interests more than they trust the US to do so.”
“What will probably not surprise the Russian president is that, while Europeans are ready to stand behind Ukraine, they are less enthusiastic about paying the financial costs of deterring Russia,” the authors of the poll concluded.
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) surveyed over 5,500 people from Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, and Sweden in the last 10 days of January.
As reported before, the first batch of US soldiers arrived in Poland and Romania with the bulk of the contingent to follow. It is planned to send nearly 3,000 extra troops to Poland and Romania to shield NATO eastern flanks. In addition, France’s President Emmanuel Macron expressed his readiness to send hundreds of troops to Romania under NATO command. Germany states it would deploy nearly 350 additional troops to Lithuania, as Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine grows.
Read also: First 100 US soldiers arrived in Romania amid Russian threat to invade Ukraine
Three out of five former Soviet republics have become members of NATO. Ukraine has close relations with the Alliance, and since 2014, its cooperation with the body has enchased. The Kremlin expected to demand a guarantee that NATO won’t expand east, so Ukraine and Georgia would not join the Alliance. However, Biden’s administration states that NATO adheres to the open doors policy.
