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The Kremlin is currently preparing for elections, and it’s becoming increasingly harder to conceal society’s war fatigue.
This was reported by Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (FISU), UATV English reports.
“Even polling controlled by the authorities shows that only 15–24% of Russians favor continuing hostilities, while 64–67% support peace negotiations. Given the atmosphere of fear in the country, the real level of support for the war could be even lower. Ahead of the September State Duma elections, this creates additional risks for the authorities that even a managed electoral system cannot fully eliminate,” FISU stated.
Ukraine’s foreign intelligence noted that, formally, Russian voters have a choice, but political competition has been eliminated.
It is noted that only candidates loyal to the regime are permitted to participate.
“A telling case was the detention of Boris Nadezhdin, who in 2024 tried to position himself as an opponent of the war. Although he posed no real threat to the authorities, he was also barred from the current campaign. This shows that the Kremlin fears not individual politicians, but any possibility of turning public discontent into a political process,” the agency stated.
FISU believes that the absence of obvious protest leaders is more of a problem for the Kremlin than an advantage.
“A leader can be discredited, arrested, or barred from elections. Without such a leader, the authorities don’t know where the next center of discontent will emerge. That’s why repression has become preventive,” the report states.
The agency noted that disagreements are also showing up within the elites.
“Part of Putin’s closest circle is calling for a way out of the war before economic and political losses become irreversible. The central bank acknowledges that financial stability is incompatible with continued funding of the war, and oligarchs are establishing separate contacts with Ukraine,” FISU reported.
It is noted that problems are also accumulating within the state system itself.
Foreign intelligence recalled that Russian oil refineries are regularly hit by strikes, the fleet is suffering losses, and temporarily occupied Crimea, after a series of attacks, is becoming an increasingly isolated territory.
“Against this backdrop, Beijing is preparing for a scenario in which Russia’s future will no longer be tied to Putin. Two months remain until the elections, and there are no signs of the situation stabilizing,” the agency stated.
FISU is convinced the situation resembles Belarus in 2020: back then, the regime faced mass protests that started as peaceful demonstrations.
It is noted that in Russia, the source of instability may no longer be civilian activists, but hundreds of thousands of war veterans (many of whom have not received the benefits, jobs, or social status they were promised).
The agency believes that if this group’s disillusionment coincides with broader discontent in the country, the September 2026 elections could become, for the Kremlin, not just another formality but the moment when Russia’s internal crisis turns into a storm.
As previously reported, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did not rule out that after the parliamentary elections in Russia, dictator Vladimir Putin could announce mobilization.
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