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Ukraine’s campaign of strikes against Russian military and logistics infrastructure in occupied Crimea is producing not only military but also political consequences for the Kremlin, according to analysts and Western defense experts.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says a series of large-scale Ukrainian drone strikes has triggered a growing exodus from the occupied peninsula, with Russian tourists, residents, occupation officials, security personnel, and military servicemen leaving Crimea. If the trend continues, analysts believe it could lead to long-term demographic changes in the occupied territory, UATV English reports.
British military expert Hamish de Bretton-Gordon wrote in The Telegraph that Russia’s declaration of a state of emergency in Crimea represents a significant political and military setback for President Vladimir Putin.
According to him, the Kremlin has been forced for the first time to publicly acknowledge the scale of the problems on the peninsula, while the restrictions introduced resemble elements of martial law, reflecting Moscow’s diminishing control over the situation.
In a separate analysis published by The Hill, U.S. national security experts Mark Toth and retired Colonel Jonathan Sweet argued that Putin’s regime may not survive a sustained military and logistical collapse in occupied Crimea.
The authors noted that Russia is spending up to half of its state budget on the war while losing as many as 35,000 troops every month, placing increasing pressure on the country’s stability. They echoed former U.S. Army Europe commander Ben Hodges, who has described Crimea as the decisive battlefield of the war.
The experts argued that Ukraine does not necessarily need to retake Crimea immediately to achieve a strategic victory. Instead, they said, making the peninsula unusable as a Russian military hub would be sufficient, with the eventual destruction of the Kerch Bridge serving as the final stage of that process.
Earlier, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service had obtained materials indicating a worsening fuel shortage, military logistics crisis, and governance problems in occupied Crimea. He also said Ukrainian intelligence had acquired internal Russian documents showing growing public concern over the country’s economic situation and the war.
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