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China is unlikely to take on a mediating role in Russia’s war against Ukraine, as Beijing remains focused on its own strategic interests rather than the conflict, former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker said.
Speaking in comments to Ukrinform on the sidelines of the GLOBSEC Forum, Volker said expectations that visits by U.S. President Donald Trump or Russian leader Vladimir Putin to China could advance peace efforts are misplaced.
“I would not put anything in this,” Volker said.
According to him, China has never viewed the war as its responsibility.
“They see this as Russia’s war and Putin’s problem. It’s not their issue. They are focused on their own regional interests,” he said, adding that Beijing continues to trade with both sides while benefiting from discounted Russian energy.
Volker suggested that Putin’s visit to China shortly after Trump’s trip was likely aimed at gaining insight into discussions between Beijing and Washington, as well as seeking leverage in his own negotiations with Chinese leadership.
However, he emphasized that China is not driven by either Russia or the United States.
“They are doing their own thing. They are not being led by Russia or by the U.S.,” Volker said.
He also dismissed the idea that China could act as a neutral mediator, noting that Moscow would only accept mediation aligned with its own demands — something Beijing is unlikely to support.
Volker added that current U.S. assumptions about potential negotiations do not reflect reality.
“The U.S. believes Russia wants to end the war — it does not. It believes Ukraine must concede — it should not. And it assumes the conflict can end through reasonable compromise, which is not the case as long as Putin remains in power,” he said.
At the same time, Volker argued that Russia’s position is expected to deteriorate further across multiple fronts, including battlefield performance, economic stability, sanctions pressure, and losses in manpower.
“And eventually, Russia will need a ceasefire because it will no longer be able to sustain the war,” he said. “That process will likely happen on its own, not through mediation by the U.S. or China.”
As earlier reported, Trump visited China on May 13-15 and Putin on May 19-20.
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