Today at 01:09
Independent journalists from Meduza, Mediazona and the Russian service of BBC estimate that at least 352,000 Russian servicemen were killed between the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the end of 2025.
The estimate is based on an analysis of named casualty lists, inheritance registry data and Russian court statistics.
Journalists noted that the figure does not include foreign mercenaries fighting for Russia or soldiers reported missing during the second half of 2025 whose legal status has not yet been finalized through Russian courts.
The estimate also excludes tens of thousands of troops whose bodies were never recovered and whose relatives have not yet initiated legal proceedings to declare them dead or missing.
For the first time since the beginning of the war, the researchers included not only officially registered deaths recorded through Russian civil registry offices — approximately 261,000 cases — but also soldiers declared dead or missing through court decisions, estimated at around 90,000 people.
According to the investigation, the heaviest Russian losses occurred during 2024 and 2025, when the intensity of combat sharply increased.
During that period, Russian courts reportedly began processing large numbers of cases involving missing soldiers. Over two years, up to 86,000 claims were filed by military units and relatives seeking official recognition of death or disappearance.
The report also cited Ukrainian estimates showing that between December 2025 and April 2026, Russian forces lost around 156,700 troops killed or wounded, while recruiting only about 148,400 volunteers during the same period.
According to the authors, this suggests Russia’s battlefield losses may now be exceeding its ability to replenish manpower.
Although these figures do not yet have full independent documentary verification, the journalists argue that Russian open-source data supports the broader trend described by Ukrainian military officials as the “grinding down” of Russian manpower.
One indicator highlighted in the investigation was the sharp increase in inheritance cases involving men aged 20–24. In some weeks of 2025, the number of such cases reportedly exceeded pre-war levels by dozens of times.
Meanwhile, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine estimates Russia’s total combat losses since February 24, 2022 at approximately 1,339,190 personnel killed or wounded as of May 8, 2026.
