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The strategic initiative in the war currently belongs to Ukraine, which, after a difficult winter, managed to disrupt the deployment of a large-scale Russian summer offensive and inflict tangible damage on Russia through strikes at the operational and strategic levels.
This view was expressed in an interview with Ukrinform by Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces, head of the Institute for Officer Training at the Theresian Military Academy.
“In my view, the strategic initiative currently belongs to Ukraine. It came out of a very difficult winter and in spring was able to carry out preparatory measures to prevent the Russian summer offensive from unfolding,” Reisner noted.
According to him, Ukraine hindered the expected Russian summer offensive so much that Russian forces proved incapable of large-scale advances. “Yes, they’re doing this in a targeted way at the tactical level, but not in the form they were counting on,” the expert noted.
Reisner also drew attention to the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes on Russian facilities. “In my view, we’re also seeing for the first time that Putin can no longer deny it: Ukrainian strikes at the operational, and above all the strategic, level are causing enormous damage,” he stressed.
According to the Austrian officer, the effectiveness of both sides’ actions in the war should be assessed by concrete outcomes.
“If Putin convenes an anti-crisis meeting and says there are problems with fuel supplies, that’s a measurable result. It shows the success of Ukrainian forces at the operational-strategic level,” Reisner stressed.
He assesses the current period as the tenth phase of the war, which began in May with massive Ukrainian drone and cruise missile strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure.
“The front itself has frozen. The Russians, though attacking, cannot truly advance. The Ukrainians are on the defensive, but also cannot reclaim territory on any significant scale,” the expert noted.
According to Reisner’s assessment, a new phase of the war could be triggered either by further escalation from Russia or by a significant effect from Ukrainian strikes.
“On the other hand, a new phase could also be initiated by Ukraine, for example if its strikes at the strategic or operational level produce an effect tangible enough to force Russia to the negotiating table to discuss a ceasefire. That could also mark the start of a new phase,” he stressed.
As previously reported, former commander of Canada’s Joint Operations Command Christopher Coates is convinced that in the war against Russia, Ukraine has managed to gain a technical advantage and seize the initiative.
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