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Ukraine’s front line has stabilized, and the current balance of combat engagements indicates that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are increasingly seizing the tactical initiative from Russian forces, according to military analyst Oleksii Hetman.
Speaking on Ukrainian Radio, Hetman noted that the number of daily combat engagements should not be viewed solely as Russian assault operations, UATV English reports.
“There were days when more than 300 combat engagements were recorded in a single day. Many people assume that every engagement reported by the General Staff reflects a Russian assault. That is not the case. As Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has pointed out, approximately half of these engagements are now Ukrainian counterattacks,” Hetman said.
According to the analyst, the ratio has shifted significantly over recent months. While in March roughly 70% of combat engagements were Russian attacks and only 30% were Ukrainian counteractions, the current balance has reached an even 50-50 split.
“If this trend continues, the number of Ukrainian counterattacks may soon exceed the number of Russian assault operations,” he said.
Hetman argued that these developments could indicate the early stages of a turning point in the war.
“There are grounds to speak about signs of a possible shift in momentum. Russian forces are failing to achieve meaningful gains. In some areas, they are losing more territory than they manage to capture,” he stated.
He added that Ukraine’s continued strikes against Russian logistics networks and energy infrastructure are contributing to the changing dynamics on the battlefield.
“We are systematically targeting logistics and making it increasingly difficult for Russia to move supplies to frontline positions. In addition, around 40% of Russia’s primary oil-refining capacity has been affected. All of this contributes to the stabilization of the front line,” Hetman said.
According to the analyst, the current situation reflects a battlefield where neither side is making significant territorial advances, but where Ukraine is increasingly dictating the pace of operations.
Asked whether he believes Ukrainian forces have already regained the initiative, Hetman responded affirmatively.
“Yes. The number of Ukrainian counterattacks has risen dramatically and is now comparable to the number of Russian assaults. That is a clear sign of tactical initiative,” he said.
Hetman also noted that on certain sections of the front Ukrainian forces currently hold local advantages in both manpower and equipment.
“There are areas where Ukraine has superiority in personnel and military assets. All indicators suggest that at least the tactical initiative is already on our side. It is not yet a strategic initiative, but it is firmly in Ukrainian hands,” he said.
If the current trend continues, Hetman believes Russia could eventually be forced into retreat.
“In that case, we could see developments similar to the Kherson or Kharkiv operations. The key question is whether the current dynamics can be sustained,” he concluded.
Earlier, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi told participants of a meeting of the EU Military Committee that Ukraine’s primary objectives remain stopping Russian advances, conducting effective counterattacks, striking Russian military infrastructure deep behind the front line, and strengthening the country’s air defense capabilities.
