{"id":1289157,"date":"2026-01-20T09:04:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-20T07:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/?p=1289157"},"modified":"2026-01-16T12:17:24","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T10:17:24","slug":"there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/","title":{"rendered":"There are only two possible scenarios for ending uprising in Iran \u2014 analyst"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

There are only two possible scenarios for ending the uprising in Iran, UATV English<\/a> informs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This was stated in an interview with Ukrinform <\/a>by Mohsen Behzad Karimi, an Iranian analyst based in Brussels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere are only two scenarios,\u201d Karimi said, responding to a question about possible outcomes of the protests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe first is increased pressure leading to temporary negotiations and short-term economic relief, accompanied by major socio-political changes that, in reality, mean the regime is no longer the same. Even this scenario would not last long and would usher in a period of rapid transformation in Iran\u2019s political sphere,\u201d he believes, and adds that this scenario will not last long and will herald a period of rapid transformation in Iran’s political sphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe second and more likely scenario is that the uprising continues, repression escalates, and external support eventually contributes to the collapse of the regime, followed by the return of the Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi and a democratic period of transition,\u201d the analyst stated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere is no third scenario. The Islamic Republic, as we have known it, is already finished,\u201d the expert concluded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The analyst also believes that protesters will welcome external support in their fight against the regime: \u201cIran is not a sectarian society like Iraq or Afghanistan. Despite ethnic diversity, there is a strong sense of national cohesion. External support aimed at dismantling the regime\u2019s security apparatus, rather than harming civilians, would likely be welcomed by a large segment of the population.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s\u00a0calls to seize administrative buildings\u00a0have already been received positively, Karimi adds: \u201cThese statements were received very positively by many Iranians, particularly because Trump publicly named a detained individual facing imminent execution and warned of consequences if the sentence were carried out. This focus on a concrete case resonated far more than abstract rhetoric and reinforced the perception that the regime is no longer untouchable.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported, US President Donald Trump told his national security team that he would like any US military action in Iran to deliver a\u00a0swift and decisive blow to the regime, but not lead to the start of a protracted war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the US has advised some of its military personnel to leave the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar amid tensions in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read also:<\/strong> NATO Conducts Major Military Exercises in Europe, Practicing Rapid Troop Deployment to Germany<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There are only two possible scenarios for ending the uprising in Iran, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":1289163,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,49,36415,36422],"tags":[76,78],"sources":[],"class_list":["post-1289157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-news-en","category-11473-news-en","category-11473-news-en-3","tag-glavnoe-en","tag-homepage-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThere are only two possible scenarios for ending uprising in Iran \u2014 analyst - Freedom<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"There are only two possible scenarios for ending uprising in Iran \u2014 analyst - Freedom\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There are only two possible scenarios for ending the uprising in Iran, ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Freedom\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-01-20T07:04:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Iran-protest-1200x692-1-820x473.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"820\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"473\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Danylo Shportilo\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Danylo Shportilo\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Danylo Shportilo\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/f4fe8d6d08deebcdee69f6671576d2d2\"},\"headline\":\"There are only two possible scenarios for ending uprising in Iran \u2014 analyst\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-01-20T07:04:00+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/\"},\"wordCount\":412,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Iran-protest-1200x692-1.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"\u0413\u043b\u0430\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0435\",\"\u041d\u0430 \u0433\u043b\u0430\u0432\u043d\u0443\u044e (\u0441\u043b\u0430\u0439\u0434\u0435\u0440)\"],\"articleSection\":[\"\u041d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438\",\"News\",\"Politics\",\"Society\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/\",\"name\":\"There are only two possible scenarios for ending uprising in Iran \u2014 analyst - Freedom\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Iran-protest-1200x692-1.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-01-20T07:04:00+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/f4fe8d6d08deebcdee69f6671576d2d2\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Iran-protest-1200x692-1.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Iran-protest-1200x692-1.jpg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":692,\"caption\":\"Protests in Iran. Photo: ap.org\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"There are only two possible scenarios for ending uprising in Iran \u2014 analyst\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/\",\"name\":\"Freedom\",\"description\":\"UATV - UA|TV - International Broadcasting Multimedia Platform of Ukraine\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/f4fe8d6d08deebcdee69f6671576d2d2\",\"name\":\"Danylo Shportilo\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dfea04f04995a5257694c4ef7149b332b4103ac47f1c95f912cddd7a1e2ef4e7?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dfea04f04995a5257694c4ef7149b332b4103ac47f1c95f912cddd7a1e2ef4e7?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dfea04f04995a5257694c4ef7149b332b4103ac47f1c95f912cddd7a1e2ef4e7?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Danylo Shportilo\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/author\/d-shportilo\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"There are only two possible scenarios for ending uprising in Iran \u2014 analyst - Freedom","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"There are only two possible scenarios for ending uprising in Iran \u2014 analyst - Freedom","og_description":"There are only two possible scenarios for ending the uprising in Iran, ...","og_url":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/","og_site_name":"Freedom","article_published_time":"2026-01-20T07:04:00+00:00","og_image":[{"width":820,"height":473,"url":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Iran-protest-1200x692-1-820x473.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Danylo Shportilo","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Danylo Shportilo","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/"},"author":{"name":"Danylo Shportilo","@id":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/f4fe8d6d08deebcdee69f6671576d2d2"},"headline":"There are only two possible scenarios for ending uprising in Iran \u2014 analyst","datePublished":"2026-01-20T07:04:00+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/"},"wordCount":412,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Iran-protest-1200x692-1.jpg","keywords":["\u0413\u043b\u0430\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0435","\u041d\u0430 \u0433\u043b\u0430\u0432\u043d\u0443\u044e (\u0441\u043b\u0430\u0439\u0434\u0435\u0440)"],"articleSection":["\u041d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438","News","Politics","Society"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/","url":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/","name":"There are only two possible scenarios for ending uprising in Iran \u2014 analyst - Freedom","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Iran-protest-1200x692-1.jpg","datePublished":"2026-01-20T07:04:00+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/f4fe8d6d08deebcdee69f6671576d2d2"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Iran-protest-1200x692-1.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Iran-protest-1200x692-1.jpg","width":1200,"height":692,"caption":"Protests in Iran. Photo: ap.org"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/there-are-only-two-possible-scenarios-for-ending-uprising-in-iran-analyst\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"There are only two possible scenarios for ending uprising in Iran \u2014 analyst"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/","name":"Freedom","description":"UATV - UA|TV - International Broadcasting Multimedia Platform of Ukraine","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/f4fe8d6d08deebcdee69f6671576d2d2","name":"Danylo Shportilo","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dfea04f04995a5257694c4ef7149b332b4103ac47f1c95f912cddd7a1e2ef4e7?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dfea04f04995a5257694c4ef7149b332b4103ac47f1c95f912cddd7a1e2ef4e7?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dfea04f04995a5257694c4ef7149b332b4103ac47f1c95f912cddd7a1e2ef4e7?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Danylo Shportilo"},"url":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/author\/d-shportilo\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1289157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/31"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1289157"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1289157\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1289164,"href":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1289157\/revisions\/1289164"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1289163"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1289157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1289157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1289157"},{"taxonomy":"sources","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/sources?post=1289157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}