{"id":1250000,"date":"2025-11-09T15:05:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-09T13:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/?p=1250000"},"modified":"2025-11-09T12:19:08","modified_gmt":"2025-11-09T10:19:08","slug":"military-observer-denys-davydov-putin-won-t-use-nukes-but-he-ll-never-stop-this-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/military-observer-denys-davydov-putin-won-t-use-nukes-but-he-ll-never-stop-this-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Military Observer Denys Davydov: \u201cPutin won\u2019t use nukes \u2013 but he\u2019ll never stop this war\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Read more details from the\u00a0interview<\/a>\u00a0between UATV English host Henry Keen and\u00a0a military observer, YouTuber with almost a million followers, Denys Davydov<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Let’s talk about the recently escalated nuclear rhetoric, whatever that means. Putin\u2019s Burevestnik and Poseidon, Trump\u2019s nuclear submarines off the coast of Russia. French analyst Fabien Mondin says all that is alarming. So is it?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Honestly, there is nothing really new that Putin is proposing to the world. Russia already has ICBMs and lots of nuclear warheads. They have more nuclear warheads than the United States of America, and they have the ways to deliver them. They have very sophisticated ICBMs. It\u2019s not just a single warhead for each missile \u2014 they may carry up to 20, and, as rumors say, 50 warheads per missile. And even if Americans somehow intercept 90% of those missiles, which Russia already has, the remaining 10% will do most of the harm, and it will be enough to wipe out, as Kiselyov says, \u201ceverything.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So I honestly don\u2019t know why Putin develops this Burevestnik or Poseidon missiles or torpedoes, because there is nothing new. Russia already has those capabilities to demolish the entire world, maybe even several times, as well as the United States of America. Maybe if Putin invested those funds in producing some sort of air defense, because compared to Americans and the American THAAD system, Russia doesn\u2019t have that sophisticated air defense against ICBMs \u2014 maybe that would be a threat, definitely. Because if you can protect yourself from a nuclear attack and you have nuclear capabilities, that\u2019s concerning. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But one more torpedo or Burevestnik cruise missile, which is not a hypersonic missile \u2014 it\u2019s a standard cruise missile, just equipped with a different engine \u2014 okay, it may fly for 14,000 or even more kilometers, but it is still interceptable by air defense. So there is absolutely nothing new which Putin proposes. And we see the reaction coming from the Western media \u2014 they don\u2019t really care. But Putin continues to talk about it, maybe just for his internal audience. Because actually what matters is not the nuclear capabilities of the country, but the fact whether Putin really wants to try it out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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And judging by what we know about Putin, he is not willing to do it. He likes his current state, his current life, and everything. I give just a very low percent that Putin somehow may use his current nuclear capabilities, which are more than enough. So: nothing new, absolutely no new threat.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 But speaking about the perspective of reality of all this \u2014 is there any evidence whatsoever that the launch of Burevestnik on October 21st was a real test of a real nuclear carrier, and not a traditionally staged demonstration of \u201cunprecedented, enormous, one-of-a-kind, yet not quite real\u201d Russian power?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 They didn\u2019t provide the images for us \u2014 just a couple of photos from the starting platform. We know that this cruise missile, Burevestnik, indeed exists. However, Russia doesn\u2019t share any detailed images \u2014 you know, like Elon Musk\u2019s SpaceX: when they launch their missiles, they have a bunch of cameras filming everywhere, even from the ocean from special buoys. Russia doesn\u2019t give that kind of information. However, that missile exists \u2014 we have the confirmation from Norwegian intelligence that Russians even before this conducted several launches of those Burevestniks. How successful they were \u2014 it\u2019s hard to tell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Okay, I take that as an answer, thank you. I\u2019ll put it that way: whatever that Poseidon they\u2019re investing in \u2014 real or not \u2014 Putin prepares the infrastructure for that Poseidon torpedo, as he said. So could we guess what that means as a political signal? Because it is a political signal.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Yes, it is a political signal. I think that the idea for Putin was to use the current White House administration as a weapon. It doesn\u2019t work as he thought, so he tries different variants \u2014 sending Dmitriev, who is some sort of economic ambassador of the Russian Federation, to propel Russian economic interests \u2014 and at the same time Putin wants to show that he still has this nuclear \u201csomething\u201d that could be very harmful for the United States. So he uses those two policies simultaneously. But in both of those, I think he failed \u2014 especially with the latest Dmitriev visit to the United States of America, when he said that sanctions do not matter for Russia\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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I think Donald Trump could be even humiliated more about this stuff, because you have to say that sanctions really matter if they\u2019re applied by Donald Trump. You shouldn\u2019t say, \u201cNo, they are not touching us at all.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 All right. If this is a signal \u2014 okay, whatever happens \u2014 the signal has been received. What, in your opinion, should NATO\u2019s reaction to such a signal be? Because there is, I mean, no reaction at all. A bit embarrassing.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 There is a reaction \u2014 comments from Donald Trump. He said that this Poseidon or Burevestnik doesn\u2019t really matter, because the United States has nuclear capabilities. They deployed a submarine somewhere close to Russia, as Trump said. Also Trump said that they will commence some nuclear exercises. But it\u2019s not a nuclear blast or something \u2014 he mentioned in the tweet that it\u2019s going to be \u201cmirror actions\u201d: so what they do, we are also going to do \u2014 some tests of ICBMs in this case. I think the United States already did it, if I\u2019m not mistaken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Russia understood it as more escalation. And yesterday, at the security meeting in Moscow, there was the proposal of Shoigu, Minister of Defense of Russia, to start real nuclear exercises somewhere in northern Russia, where they might actually explode a real nuclear bomb. For a very long time those nuclear tests were cancelled, forbidden, but now Russia seems like it wants to return and even blow up a real bomb to show their seriousness. We will see what might happen in this case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 And what do you think the reaction will be? Because it could be just talks, until it happens \u2014 until Russia actually is the first one to test a nuclear bomb since, I don\u2019t know, 1992 or 1996, whatever that was \u2014 mistaken dates \u2014 but they will be the first one. Do you believe there will be any reaction?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Yes, I believe there will be a reaction. I think from America there will be a reaction. We may like Donald Trump, we may not like Donald Trump, but he will not swallow that act. It\u2019s understandable \u2014 it\u2019s his mindset, the portrait of Donald Trump. He will not stay calm \u2014 there will be a response. What kind of response \u2014 it\u2019s hard to tell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hopefully, it will be the support of Ukrainian long-range capabilities \u2014 maybe with Tomahawks, maybe with something else \u2014 but hopefully in this way. Because if he decides to blow up an American bomb, it doesn\u2019t really matter \u2014 the real thing should be applied: Ukraine is fighting against Russia. Ukraine really physically influences Russia. So I think that would be the proper response for Donald Trump \u2014 but we don\u2019t know what they really think. It hasn\u2019t yet happened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Indeed. Absolutely. I agree \u2014 it hasn\u2019t yet happened. But Putin awards the developers of Burevestnik and Poseidon and declares complete independence of Russian technologies from Western ones, finally, and brags about new nuclear products. Is that a real threat or not? He is bragging, he is speaking \u2014 but when the time comes, do you believe, as an expert or as an observer, do you personally believe that he will use any of that against the United States?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 No, I don\u2019t believe that Putin will use nukes. So many red lines have already been crossed, and Putin is quite okay with Tomahawk missiles. I don\u2019t think there will be some sort of response from him. They\u2019re mostly yapping on Russian propaganda TV, and Putin himself threatens all the time. At first our allies really took it seriously \u2014 remember how they were very slow in giving us Leopard tanks, tanks in general. Each time it was: \u201cWe are afraid to escalate.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, finally, they don\u2019t care about it. Trump\u2019s administration is pretty much okay with Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure. No one is telling us \u201cdo not escalate\u201d any longer. At least like that. I would like to see direct military support from the United States, not just for Europeans to purchase those weapons, because they are limited in their capability and the European economy is not feeling well compared to what it was before. So, yes, Ukraine doesn\u2019t obtain enough right now. If Donald Trump wants to respond \u2014 of course it\u2019s better to support Ukraine in any case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Maybe the last question for this topic. Trump announces nuclear tests and readiness for parity \u2014 again, whatever that means \u2014 with Russia and with China, by the way. But could this all develop into a real arms race?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Yes, it can. Potentially. But still, the United States has more production, more everything. I don\u2019t think that Russia nowadays, with the problems they have in the economy and military sector, is capable of going into a military race with the United States. Maybe China \u2014 but China\u2019s idea now is to develop more warheads. They have 600; they plan, till 2030, to have 1,000 nuclear warheads. But still it\u2019s five times less than in Russia and the United States of America. So if we speak about nuclear weaponry, they\u2019re not really in this competition. The modern competition, as you see on the front lines, is about drone technologies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately, I see from the NATO countries that they still don\u2019t understand what is happening. And only after some sort of provocations started with the drones, Denmark, for example, went to Ukrainian specialists to train them, to show the drone interceptors, and so on. So they are still lacking this technology. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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That\u2019s the big downside of the Western NATO bloc in general. And I guess Ukraine has something to propose to our partners for them to be more capable.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 But just to round up the topic from an OSINT point of view \u2014 or maybe you have other sources \u2014 is there any satellite imagery confirming preparations for nuclear tests, both in Russia or the United States? Is there any evidence that the prepar<\/strong>ations are real?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 So far, I haven\u2019t seen those. Russia just said about it the day before yesterday. So we\u2019ll see in the coming days if they really want to put something into real action. Obviously, we have satellites \u2014 not \u201cwe,\u201d but in general \u2014 the images are being published, you can monitor them. So we will see the preparations. I think maybe Russia will blow up one warhead in Novaya Zemlya \u2014 maybe. I think they may do it. They may do it just to see what happens, because that\u2019s what they usually do: to provocate and see what happens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 All right, let\u2019s slide into diplomacy, because we really need to wait another two days \u2014 it\u2019s even crazy that we\u2019re talking about \u201clet\u2019s wait for another couple of days and see if someone will blow up a nuclear warhead.\u201d But let\u2019s talk about diplomacy. British Secretary of Defense John Healey said Trump can force Putin to negotiations \u2014 literally, that\u2019s what he said. Trump says Putin called for help two weeks ago to settle the war that he has started on his own. So, on a scale from 1 to 10, how real do you think all that is? Can Trump force Putin? Did Putin call? Is it a sign of weakness from Russians? A diplomatic trap? Both? What\u2019s going on?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Maybe Putin called Donald Trump to help him to finish Ukraine or something \u2014 to help him to cut military support \u2014 because I see Putin just using Donald Trump in his favor as diplomatic weaponry to achieve his goals on the front lines. I don\u2019t see that Putin is willing to stop. No one from experts, I guess, sees some sort of light at the end of the tunnel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin already has this proposal from Donald Trump to stop the war at the current front line. President Zelenskyy agrees on that \u2014 he openly said to Donald Trump: we agree to freeze the war. But Putin doesn\u2019t want to do it. And Putin always has this option: if he is not successful on the front lines, if something dramatic starts to happen with the Russian economy \u2014 for now it\u2019s not like that, unfortunately \u2014 maybe some protests, if we believe in that, then he might always stop, agree on Trump\u2019s scenario, agree on Zelenskyy\u2019s scenario, stop the current war. But before that he will continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And I don\u2019t think that the United States administration \u2014 whoever is president \u2014 has real leverage on the Russian president. Honestly, it\u2019s not as it was before. Russia has different markets. Russia has China. Wang Yi, the foreign minister of China, said to Kallas three months ago that they will not let Russia lose, because it\u2019s not profitable for China. He said it openly. So they have multiple countries still trading with Russia, unfortunately supporting their economy. Sadly, also European partners purchase Russian fossil fuels. We apply sanctions, Hungary applies sanctions on pipelines, but still it\u2019s not enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia will be declining \u2014 problems are mounting. But you said no expert believes that Putin wants to stop this war \u2014 I\u2019m with you \u2014 but some still say that sometimes they see it the other way: that the Kremlin is preparing some sort of negotiation framework, with all these Russian info throw-ins and propaganda throw-ups. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

About negotiations \u2014 I heard that Russians split the topic. For example, they want to discuss separately Ukrainian children who were kidnapped, prisoners of war, and some other humanitarian aspects. They are not even touching the territorial question. They split those topics \u2014 it means that they want to \u201cnegotiate for negotiations\u201d and to make it as long as possible, to show to Donald Trump also that they are negotiating about something. That\u2019s their approach: they want negotiations just to continue the war. That\u2019s it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Well, we share the same opinion. But let\u2019s say the ceasefire is now \u2014 tomorrow. Do you believe that after such a ceasefire a new round of war with Russia, a new escalation, is inevitable?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 With the current Russian regime \u2014 yes. I think the only way to stop this war is to get rid of the Russian regime. Unfortunately, with the current Russian president at least, and with his circle, the war will continue. It\u2019s my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin has his own ambitions \u2014 he tells about it openly. I don\u2019t understand why people try to interpret Putin\u2019s words in a different way. He says it openly. He speaks about historical parallels, that Ukraine is a fake state which was created by Lenin, that it is Russia, we are the same nation. So he wants to achieve it. It\u2019s his built-in program. He has this narrative and he will do it, and he will use other excuses \u2014 expansion of NATO, for example. Maybe he believes in that too \u2014 he is ex-KGB and was threatened by NATO before. But his main idea is to erase Ukraine \u2014 not to unite, but to erase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uniting people \u2014 and those who disagree, let\u2019s get rid of them. Let them live in other countries, or let\u2019s put them into some camps, and those who would like to accept \u201cRussian peace\u201d \u2014 okay, they will be Russians. That\u2019s what they do in occupied territories: put in Russian history books, raise kids as totally Russians \u2014 they grow up Russians there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Well, anyone who wants to see what \u201cRussian peace\u201d looks like should go to Mariupol and spend some time in Bucha and see what happens there. But let\u2019s talk about the grim reality on the front line, Denys. I\u2019m a news anchor, as you can see, and every day I see those reports from the General Staff \u2014 it\u2019s my job to translate them to American and British audiences. The reports say: over the past 24 hours more than a thousand occupiers were eliminated. So, quite a stable trend these days. Russians care not for any life, including their own \u2014 that much we do know. But what about us \u2014 Ukraine \u2014 the Pokrovsk direction, I mean? How are we doing there, Denys?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Honestly, not that good. Especially with the news coming the day before yesterday. Yesterday there were good news \u2014 it seems like Ukraine wants to expand the bottleneck for withdrawal of Ukrainian forces. Unfortunately, our army cannot hold those two settlements for long. I expect that in the coming weeks, maximum, they will be taken by the enemy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was evident even one year ago that Pokrovsk will be taken by Russia \u2014 they just pour lots of forces. Let\u2019s be honest: Russia has a big army, they have big resources, their economy is big. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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North Korea supports Russia with more artillery shells than the entire West supplies to Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

So unfortunately it\u2019s like that. Ukraine still is mainly alone, at least with manpower, against this advance. And I\u2019m still surprised how our guys can defend and how they let Russia advance so slowly and sometimes even counterattack \u2014 like it was. We are speaking about Pokrovsk, but there are still defense lines after Pokrovsk. So it\u2019s not the end of the story if Russians take it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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And how the Ukrainian Armed Forces are still holding \u2014 this Pokrovsk will go into the history books, definitely, because everything said that Pokrovsk would be lost, and Russians were expecting that to happen for a year already \u2014 and we\u2019re still there, still dragging their forces. This is amazing bravery and heroism of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 But how are our new brave air-defense systems doing? And those F-16s \u2014 are they affecting the actual battlefield or not?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 We need more fighter jets. F-16s are working to protect Ukrainian skies \u2014 they are used against Russian cruise missiles, Russian drones. But speaking about the front lines, I think Ukraine simply doesn\u2019t have enough airplanes. Russia has advanced airplanes \u2014 Su-30s, Su-35s \u2014 they are way better than F-16s. F-16s, even with the tuning options that we have \u2014 advanced radar technologies \u2014 I don\u2019t think they are comparable to Su-35, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And to act against the Russian fighter-bombers Su-34, which are doing most of the harm on the front lines dropping gliding bombs, Ukraine needs hundreds of airplanes of that type, of F-16. Unfortunately, we haven\u2019t obtained even a single flying unit from the United States of America \u2014 all the supplies were from Europe. Europe still waits for F-35s, and only after that will they send to us all of the F-16s \u2014 for example, Belgium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, unfortunately, Ukraine is capable to use F-16s just behind the front lines. But Ukraine has other capabilities \u2014 long-range weaponry is still working. For example, FPV-5 \u201cFlamingo\u201d is kind of a wet missile, a cruise missile \u2014 it needs more development. It\u2019s quite big, so after all maybe Neptune or Tomahawks are way better because they\u2019re smaller, nimble, may fly for a longer range, because Flamingo is well identified by Russian radars, air-defense systems. But still there were successful uses of Flamingo \u2014 not that many \u2014 but for initial use it\u2019s more or less okay. It needs more development. Neptune is well tested \u2014 that\u2019s why I see that Ukraine mostly uses Neptune to hit some of the Russian infrastructure recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Pokrovsk and other settlements \u2014 it\u2019s local anyway. Is there a risk that Russia will attempt a massive assault before winter again?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 They tried. North from Pokrovsk there is the Berdiya direction \u2014 Russians already broke through. It was a very big threat for Ukraine, actually bigger than Pokrovsk. In August this year they broke through to Zolota Nyva and actually crossed the Ukrainian main defense line in a single point, and it was a threat for the entire region \u2014 Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Luckily, Ukraine reacted. I was really surprised with our Ukrainian military command \u2014 it happens rarely, but it happened at the proper time. They deployed our guys from the first Azov Corps, 33rd Assault Brigade, and 95th \u2014 they were very capable in cutting Russians south, and nowadays it\u2019s like the finishing of the presence of Russian troops in that region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So from the great success of the Russian attack \u2014 they miserably failed there. And Ukraine really showed that it can still react very fast. I would like to see that reaction also for Pokrovsk \u2014 at least with the fast withdrawal of Ukrainian troops, because there are risks now for Ukrainian Armed Forces in this pocket. Yesterday I saw some good news: Ukraine tries to widen the bottleneck to withdraw the forces \u2014 but just to withdraw. For now in Pokrovsk it\u2019s the most profitable scenario for Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Berdiya direction was more tricky because of the main defense line that could potentially have been penetrated \u2014 so it was more dangerous. And Ukraine reacted, so it compensated this Russian move. I think Russians didn\u2019t expect it themselves \u2014 it was an accidental move. They just tried to move to that direction and advanced 17 km in 3 days. But later on it was a complete disaster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And about this \u201cbig offensive\u201d that President Zelenskyy spoke about, our military command spoke about \u2014 Russians actually started it. They started it last month. They poured more than 70 vehicles to Chasiv Yar direction \u2014 that\u2019s the same variant with their breakthrough that happened in August, the same direction. They lost territories, but Ukraine already deployed capable units, withdrawn army, and Russians tried to break through again: \u201cOkay, we were there, we penetrated that line, we want to get it again.\u201d But it\u2019s too late for them, and they lost 74 vehicles in the last month for two villages, and they didn\u2019t take those. So absolutely losses for nothing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And I saw one video how Russian motorcyclists went to a closed bridge \u2014 the bridge was destroyed a month before \u2014 and the Russian military command sent them to that closed connection. It was a dead end. And they were immediately hit by Ukrainian drones. So \u2014 let\u2019s wish for the same, actually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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