Burns was a vocal and helpful ally of Ukraine – what about Ratcliffe? The kremlin mouthpiece Maria Zakharova and her ‘uncontrolled escalation’ if international peacekeepers are deployed in Ukraine. \u2060Recent ruzzian oil refineries ablaze – does the kremlin care much? Ukrainian Army – if you were in charge what\u00a0would\u00a0you\u00a0do?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2014 As CIA director, I know William Burns was a vocal, very public, and helpful ally of Ukraine. As CIA director, what about Ratcliffe? Do you know anything? Any comments on that?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Well, he has just passed his Senate confirmation, although not with a unanimous vote. He is, as I understand it, something of a Washington player\u2014started out as a lawyer and politician, right? And now, I think to the extent that there are serious complaints against him\u2014which clearly have not been significant enough to halt his confirmation\u2014he’s got very close connections with a lot of tech companies, particularly AI operators, and some are concerned about that. But look, I have no doubt that he will act in his country’s interests. The CIA is a massive bureaucracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To my mind, the more important appointment is really Tulsi Gabbard, for whom I have a very great deal of regard. Being a veteran herself, she\u2019s a really hard-spoken advocate for U.S. interests. And whatever country you’re in, it’s the job of an intelligence commander or leader to act in your country’s interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As to their effect on Ukraine, I can’t see it being significant either way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Well, yeah, AI tech companies are connected to him, that’s for sure, because Mr. RLI mentioned that the United States should be using artificial intelligence more. What\u2014against whom?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Well, look at their pacing threat, which is the People’s Republic of China. They have declared themselves to be taking military AI development as a priority. Any dominance in that space would existentially affect the United States. So absolutely, the U.S. has to gain dominance in AI\u2014among many other domains. I can’t argue with that fact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Let’s smoothly slide to Russia, shall we? The Kremlin mouthpiece Maria Zakharova recently said that international peacekeepers in Ukraine will lead to\u2014I quote her\u2014”uncontrolled escalation.” Whatever that means. Like, now\u2014is it controlled escalation?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n What are your thoughts on the matter? The idea of international peacekeepers in general, and Russian red lines and threats of uncontrolled escalation if that happens in particular?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 We all know Ms. Zakharova and her periodic, sometimes occasional, lack of self-control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Concerning the peacekeepers\u2014look, people have to understand, there will be no NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine, for two reasons. First, they won’t be accepted in any peace deal. Secondly, even if they were, NATO could deploy between 20,000 and 30,000 at any one time. Right? And for a frontier of a thousand kilometers, that won\u2019t work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n NATO is very weak in actual strength. On paper, of course, it has millions of people under command. But in reality, they\u2019re a bit of a paper tiger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 All right. Well, recent Russian oil refineries were set ablaze. Do you think the Kremlin feels anything about that? I mean\u2014economically, politically, militarily?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 First of all, if I can just cut back for ten seconds on the NATO thing\u2014what I mean is, NATO without<\/em> the U.S. is a paper tiger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But returning to the refineries, I want to put a couple of things in context. These were wars I was personally involved in and took an interest in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the war against Serbia, we had 38,000 air strike sorties against Serbian targets over about three months. That essentially did the job, although it didn\u2019t do much damage to the Serbian armed forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Iraq, in 1991, which is a more accurate analogy\u2014since Iraq is quite big, though still much smaller than Russia\u2014it was 103,000 jet bomber sorties.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n Now, a few drones hitting the occasional oil refinery or arms dump? I\u2019m afraid that will not make any significant dent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you want to break up a large country\u2019s military and industrial capability, you need tens of thousands<\/em> of missions and strike points to do that. It\u2019s called \u201cstrike density\u201d in military terminology, and Ukraine simply doesn\u2019t have that at the moment\u2014whatever we do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 All right. So, the Ukrainian Army\u2014if you were in charge, what would you change first as the chief commander of the Ukrainian Army?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Okay, well, it\u2019s very easy\u2014and lots of people do\u2014this armchair generalship. I don\u2019t think I, or they, should do that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But one observation before a suggestion\u2014fire and expel from the country every Western general who purports to give advice. None of these people have fought a war anything like the way Ukraine is fighting. And I fought in the same wars as them\u2014I can assure you that\u2019s true. The wars we fought were brush wars, and they all failed in any event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Fire them. Dismiss them. Don\u2019t listen to a word they say.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n There are Ukrainian generals\u2014I have no doubt\u2014who are perfectly capable of handling the kind of flexible defense the country needs. Were they to be promoted\u2014because certainly, they\u2019re not in place now\u2014I would urge their chiefs of staff to read some military history. Look at the campaigns of British General Slim in World War II, Russian General Zhukov, or German General H. von Manstein\u2014all of whom were masters of defensive warfare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since we don\u2019t have that academic luxury, though, if I were in charge, I would say this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Find young officers\u2014battalion commanders, brigade commanders\u2014who have succeeded, who are respected by their men, and you and I know they exist. Promote them. Promote them for success, and fire failures from top to bottom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As for strategy, I can\u2019t say. But I\u2019m sure many Ukrainians, including Ukrainian soldiers, might argue that this constant pattern of salients developing\u2014L-shaped positions, then abandoning soldiers in them\u2014such as in Velyka Novosilka, Avdiivka, Bakhmut, or half a dozen others\u2014is no way forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What it results in is dead Ukrainian soldiers for no palpable gain. That, to me, looks like poor planning and disastrous operational execution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Last question\u2014Donald Trump. Does he have the capability to talk the language he\u2019s using with the Russian dictator? I mean\u2014he says it\u2019s this way or the hard way. Can he really do that?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Well, you know as well as I do the answer to that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n No one\u2014not even the people closest to him\u2014knows for sure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I’ll just make this observation\u2014certainly, he can<\/em> speak to Putin in his own language, for better or worse. Whether he should<\/em> involve Ukraine, whether he will<\/em> involve Ukraine\u2014certainly, he won\u2019t<\/em> involve the Europeans in this, I think we\u2019ve seen that. That\u2019s another question.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n But look\u2014I\u2019m fairly confident that if anyone can do it, he can.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There are some doubts being raised, though, and you\u2019re probably aware of this\u2014about General Kellogg and his background in this. But look, he\u2019s the person in place. We\u2019ll see how that plays out over the next three to four months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
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