How dead is Bashar Al-Asad – can Russia try to get him back to power? Trilateral meeting in Paris of Zelenskyy, Trump and Macron – any good signs for Ukraine? Can Trump force Putin to negotiate?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2014 Bashar al-Assad\u2014sorry, but I need to ask. A political corpse, physically and reportedly alive. Now, if he’s alive, can the Kremlin even try to restore him to power? What do you think?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 My feeling is that this is now a lost cause, and I can’t imagine how they will bring back their presence there. It’s quite embarrassing\u2014not just for Putin personally, but for the Assad regime as well. This regime, including Assad\u2019s father’s era, has been a client not just of the post-Soviet Russian Federation but also of the Soviet Union. So, this is a quite historic loss for Moscow\u2014not just for Russia but also for Soviet Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 How come? Assad’s regime is said to have weakened Putin’s regime. I’ve heard that before, but how come?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Actually, that’s a good question. I’m not much of a regional expert, but in general, these sorts of regimes tend to fall at some point, and usually quite spectacularly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is, I would say, a structural problem that authoritarian regimes have. They lack the instruments to interact with society properly. As tensions between the regime and society rise, eventually, the regime collapses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 All right. Well, let’s hope that two connected dictatorial regimes collapse together. Why not? That would be a fine holiday for all of us in Europe.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n By the way, talking about Europe and America\u2014united, somewhat united\u2014there was a trilateral meeting in Paris with Zelenskyy, Trump, and Macron. Notre Dame reopened and all that\u2014very fancy. Some even say game-changing. Do you see any positive signs for Ukraine in the bare facts of that meeting?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 I wouldn\u2019t call it game-changing, but it was certainly good that Zelensky was there and communicated with Trump, and that Macron was part of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Whether this will result in what Ukraine hopes for is another question. But so far, it doesn’t look too bad. Let\u2019s see what will come out of it. The signs so far are good, but with Trump, one never knows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Well, indeed, Trump walking and Trump talking are two different personalities. Which, it turns out, isn\u2019t too bad for Ukraine.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n So, Trump says, \u201cNow I know Vladimir Putin. It is his time to act if he wants to stop this war.\u201d We all know that Vladimir Putin not only does not want to stop this war but surely would love to start more wars, if he can.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n With Assad’s regime down, Trump’s rhetoric, and Europe rising, do you believe Putin will actually stop and sit at the table to negotiate at some point?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Yes, if Trump makes his sort of veiled threats credible and plausibly says he’s going to increase support for Ukraine. Then there would be motivation for Russia to come to the table for negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The problem here is: what will the deal be? If it\u2019s a deal where both Ukraine and international law lose, it would essentially allow Putin to harvest the fruits of his aggression. That would not only be bad for Eastern Europe and Ukraine but would also harm the international order, as it might encourage other countries to attempt similar aggressions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is going to be far more complicated than many people imagine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Absolutely. But what if Putin doesn\u2019t react to what Trump does and takes Trump\u2019s efforts for granted, as he seems to be doing now? Trump has said publicly many times, \u201cIf Putin doesn\u2019t act, I\u2019ll give Ukraine everything it needs to turn the tide of this war.\u201d My question is: Will Trump actually do it? Will he give all the military aid and money needed to turn the tide of this war?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 That\u2019s a good question. Someone in Washington might be better qualified to answer, although with Trump, one never knows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To me, he’s unpredictable. If he does indeed give Ukraine everything it needs, that would be the best-case scenario. Ukraine could fully recover and liberate the territories it has lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That wouldn\u2019t just be the best solution for Ukraine but also the best solution for the international order and international law.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n\n