{"id":1054312,"date":"2024-12-05T17:27:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-05T15:27:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/?p=1054312"},"modified":"2024-12-04T12:32:46","modified_gmt":"2024-12-04T10:32:46","slug":"it-s-a-chance-one-for-a-million-rebels-advance-in-syria-interview-with-martin-krzyzanowski","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/it-s-a-chance-one-for-a-million-rebels-advance-in-syria-interview-with-martin-krzyzanowski\/","title":{"rendered":"It’s a Chance One for a Million: Rebels Advance in Syria. Interview with Martin Krzyzanowski"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Interview with Martin Krzyzanowski<\/strong>, an expert-orientalist on what is happening in Syria and why it’s a “chance for a million” to change the situation. Hear it\u00a0for\u00a0yourself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Previous time when we met, we were talking about Iran and its influence in the Middle East. And today, we are talking about Syria, and Syria\u2019s turmoil is happening. There is a complete mess right now. Yesterday is too early, tomorrow is too late, so the rebels act now. They rebel against the Assad regime. What are the odds for their victory?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 They have a chance to topple the regime as they were able to do a Blitzkrieg-style offensive. They were able to conquer Aleppo in just a few hours without any significant defense from the side of government forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rebels continued their advances toward the southern part of Syria. At the moment, they are trying to capture the city of Hama, which is almost the last big city, except the city of Homs, before Damascus itself. Capturing Hama and later Homs would divide the territory held by the Damascus government into two parts\u2014the, let\u2019s say, desert part and coastal part.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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It would be catastrophic from the strategic point of view for the regime. So, it is too early to say that the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad is in imminent danger of collapse, but the situation is very, very serious.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Will the Syrian escalation, let us call it that, help the Ukrainian front? Assad is supported by Russia, and it was Russian forces and aviation that helped him conquer and destroy Aleppo back in 2015 and 2016.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 For sure, every defeat of Russian forces is a good thing for Ukraine. Even if it will not disperse or divide a huge number of Russian troops from the Ukrainian front to Syria, it would be a severe blow for the morale of Russia and its supporters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seeing Russian defeat would be helpful for Ukraine. Although I don\u2019t think Russia will send additional troops to Syria\u2014maybe a few hundred with a few airplanes\u2014but nothing more, as the main bulk of Russian forces are fighting in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Maybe let\u2019s tell our audience about the differences that caused the war in Syria. Maybe about the Alawite government of Bashar al-Assad and his clan, because they are Alawite Muslims, and the rebels are primarily Sunni. Can you tell us a little bit about those differences?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Syria is a very complicated country. It is a huge mix of various religious minorities. The dominant religion in Syria is Sunni Islam, but there is also a significant portion of Shia and Alawites. Alawites are considered by radical Islamists, especially radical Sunnis, as heretics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the main slogans of the rebel forces, like HTS (Hay\u2019at Tahrir al-Sham), which is leading an offensive toward Hama right now, is to get rid of the heretic or so-called “kufar” government from Syria and establish an Islamic society.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is one of the main reasons why the Assad government was able to secure support from various minorities\u2014of course, the Alawites themselves, but also Druze, Shias, and various Christian denominations present in Syria. They were simply afraid of Sunni jihadism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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They feared that after the victory of the rebel coalition, they would start ethnic\u2014or more precisely, religious\u2014cleansing in Syrian territory. In the past few years, we witnessed various atrocities committed by the rebel forces.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Of course, we cannot say the government in Damascus is \u201cgood,\u201d as they were also killing many civilians. The war in Syria is especially bloody and complicated, and most probably, the conflict will not end very soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 That\u2019s very interesting because I\u2019ve interviewed another expert from Israel, Eli, and he is assured that most minorities in Syria are against the Assad regime because he introduced repressions against Sunnis, Christians, and other Muslim denominations\u2014except for Shias and Alawites. And because they are Alawites aligned with Shias, they\u2019ve got Iranian support, which is like the leader of the Shia world. What do you think about that?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 That\u2019s at least partially correct. Being, let\u2019s call it, a representative of the minority meant that Assad was forced to repress the Sunni majority, especially radical jihadi groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those Assad supporters from minorities, especially Druze and Christians, don\u2019t love him, so to say, but they fear jihadists more than Assad. Their support to the government in Damascus is purely tactical\u2014not based on any kind of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that\u2019s correct, as Alawites are considered heretics by Sunni radicals. They are not considered as such by most Shias, who see them as a kind of Shia group. Their relations with Iran were easier to maintain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Iranian support for Assad is not motivated by religious issues but by regional policy. Syria was, since at least the late 1970s, part of the anti-Western bloc and remained so. The cooperation between Damascus and Tehran dates back before the Arab Spring and the civil war in Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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But the civil war and Iranian assistance during it made Bashar al-Assad dependent on Iranian aid, support, and Iranian-backed militias. Syria is now a very important part of Iran\u2019s so-called \u201cAxis of Resistance.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 You\u2019re telling me that Syrian territory was much like a gray zone, where one-sided weapons became neutral and then acquired by Hezbollah. Am I correct?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Yeah, that\u2019s quite correct.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 And maybe, can you tell me what is the American interest in Syria? There is an American contingent as well as a Turkish one, so two NATO states are on the ground in Syria, helping some sides\u2014probably helping the rebels. What is their interest?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 The very interesting thing is that, as you said, two NATO countries are supporting opposing forces\u2014both from the side of the rebels but also fighting against each other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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It\u2019s important to say that the rebels are not unified. There are at least four major groups of rebels. One of them, the so-called Syrian National Army, is directly supported by Turkey. That organization fights against Syrian Democratic Forces, mainly Kurdish forces, which are supported by the United States.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The United States placed its ground and air forces in Syria to help fight against the Islamic State. At the moment, they are trying to stop or suppress the movement of Iranian equipment and militias heading to Damascus and trying to help President Bashar al-Assad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 So can we sum up that there\u2019s the group of radical Sunni rebels, the group supported by the United States\u2014the Kurds from Syria\u2014and also the Turkish-backed group, right?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 That\u2019s true. There are four major formations:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  1. The government in Damascus, supported by Iran and Russia.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. The most important rebel group, HTS (Hay\u2019at Tahrir al-Sham), based in Idlib Province and loosely supported but not controlled by Turkey.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. The Syrian National Army, directly supported by Turkey.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. The Syrian Democratic Forces, supported by the United States, which are mainly Kurdish forces.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Last but not least, there are remnants of the Islamic State. Fortunately, the Islamic State doesn\u2019t control any consistent territory but is limited to partisan and irregular forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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