China – Xi Jinping called first: is that a sign of sorts? Trump’s win was no surprise? Capable of a favorable decision making towards Ukraine, while Democrats only cede grounds, whether Ukrainian or their own, Trump might be a way out of the war?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These topics Henry Keen has discussed with\u00a0Alexander Khara<\/strong>, a Ukrainian diplomat with experience and an expert in world politics. Watch more to know all the details of this thoughtful interview.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Were you surprised by Trump’s win?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Well, it was not out of the blue. We followed the opinion polls from the battleground states, and it was clear that the two candidates were neck-and-neck, with only a small margin between them. So, it was apparent that someone was going to win, and there was a high chance for Mr. Trump to secure the victory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The other thing that surprised us was the performance of the Republicans in Congress. They took over the Senate and have a strong majority in the House. “Surprise” might not be the right word for me, but some people in Ukraine and abroad are saying it\u2019s beneficial for Ukraine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n They view Trump as someone who takes action, especially since he was the one who approved the delivery of lethal weapons and funding for Ukraine, a move followed by Boris Johnson after Trump\u2019s pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Do you personally think Trump is good or bad for Ukraine?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Well, first of all, Ukrainians have endured the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, and have been in a war with Russia since 2014. We don\u2019t have a choice but to remain optimistic about our fate, our sovereignty, and our beloved state. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Some supporters of Mr. Trump believe he can bring peace to Ukraine. They think he won’t hesitate to challenge Russia\u2014for example, by unleashing the U.S. energy sector and flooding American and international markets with oil. If this happens, it would mean less money for Putin’s war efforts in Ukraine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n There are some ideas that Trump might implement if he gets into office, but we also hear remarks from him and his circle that don\u2019t encourage us. <\/p>\n\n\n\n I see it as a challenge for Ukraine to reshape his thinking, leaning on European partners to emphasize that this isn\u2019t just a territorial issue; it\u2019s about the existence of Ukraine and the security framework in Europe.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n Yes, the Biden administration has done a tremendous job in supporting Ukraine. But they fell short in defining Ukrainian victory, always fearing escalation from Russia, even as Russia escalated consistently. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump\u2019s decisive character could play a positive role for Ukraine if we\u2014by that I mean not just Ukraine but our partners in the U.S. Congress and our allies\u2014can convince him that it\u2019s in America’s interest to continue supporting Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 China\u2019s Xi Jinping was the first to congratulate Trump. Do you think this signals anything?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Well, Xi Jinping knows it will be a challenging relationship with the incoming administration, as it was before. Trump previously imposed significant tariffs and sanctions, viewing China as taking advantage of American businesses. While Trump has downplayed the importance of Taiwan, people around him would likely steer his policy to prevent China from taking action against Taiwan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Xi\u2019s congratulations to Trump likely reflect his hope of a favorable deal, as he couldn\u2019t achieve this with Biden, who rejected proposals for shared global influence. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n Trump might think differently, but it\u2019s unclear if Americans would support any division of global power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Some people are hopeful about Trump\u2019s potential cabinet, with figures like Susie W and Mike Pompeo possibly playing key roles, especially for Ukraine. Do you think Trump\u2019s actions might differ from his words?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2014 Yes, absolutely. We’ve seen Trump and other U.S. candidates promise certain things but face the realities of dealing with allies and adversaries. Trump will likely be influenced by actors beyond Ukraine and Russia, including European allies, South Korea, Japan, Australia, India, and the UK. <\/p>\n\n\n\n We need to wait and see who he appoints to key roles and how his administration\u2019s strategies develop. In Trump\u2019s first term, there was considerable turnover in his administration, and we may see similar changes this time. But once the top positions are filled, we\u2019ll better understand their perspectives and the strategies they\u2019ll propose to Trump. <\/p>\n\n\n\n How China and Russia react to these policies is still uncertain. It\u2019s too early to say if Trump could end the Ukraine war in a short timeframe or handle China\u2019s economic power as he claims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
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