{"id":1038225,"date":"2024-11-06T16:04:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-06T14:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/?p=1038225"},"modified":"2024-11-05T11:10:12","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T09:10:12","slug":"peter-dickinson-the-west-is-tested-now-and-it-fails","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/peter-dickinson-the-west-is-tested-now-and-it-fails\/","title":{"rendered":"Peter Dickinson: The West Is Tested Now, and It Fails"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

According to the opinion of Peter Dickinson<\/strong>, the editor of the UkraineAlert blog at the Eurasia Center of the Atlantic Council, Putin is testing the West and its response by bringing North Korean troops into Ukraine. And if they fail to react properly \u2013 there will be even more of them. Watch it for yourself. He explained his opinion in this interview.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Volodymyr Zelenskyy has slammed Western allies of Ukraine for zero reaction, as I quote, to North Korean military involvement in the war against Ukraine. And we are hearing right now that North Korean troops are being deployed to Kursk region and to the front line. What do you think about that?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Well, I think what we’re seeing now is a test for the West. I think Putin is testing the West’s reaction to see what kind of response they have to the involvement of foreign soldiers in the Russian invasion. At this stage, we’re talking about maybe 10,000 North Korean troops. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, of course, if Putin feels that there’s been no major response, no major negative consequences for using North Korean soldiers, it seems very likely that we\u2019ll see a lot more soldiers. He might then say, “Okay, this is a way to solve Russia’s manpower problems.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Instead of using 10,000 North Korean troops, we could be looking at maybe 100,000. This is certainly what we should expect to see in the coming months if the West doesn\u2019t respond promptly and far more forcefully than what we’ve seen over the last two weeks. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

So, it’s a test at the moment, and currently, the West is failing it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 What could happen if the deployment of, say, 100,000 North Korean troops to Ukraine is allowed? Do you see that as a game changer for the war itself? And if it is a game changer, shouldn\u2019t there be a strong reaction from our allies?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 It’s certainly a game changer. It\u2019s going to transform the war, and it also transforms Russian aggression. North Korea has no direct interest in Ukraine; it\u2019s involved purely as Russia’s ally. Ukraine and North Korea have no conflicts, no areas of competition, no reason for conflict. So, this is solely North Korea joining Russia’s war in Ukraine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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If North Korea is prepared to do that, it may also be prepared to join other Russian military ventures \u2014 maybe in Moldova, Poland, the Baltic states, against Finland, or even in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Russia could potentially use North Korean soldiers in many regions. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

North Korea has one of the largest standing armies in the world, with over a million soldiers \u2014 far more than most countries can offer. The manpower available for Russia to draw on is significant, which could greatly enhance Russia\u2019s military strength. Russia’s tactics in Ukraine are very manpower-intensive and rely on pushing forward large numbers of troops to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many of the troops Russia is using are not well-trained; Russia’s most experienced officers, commanders, and troops have already been lost in the initial two and a half years of the invasion. Now, Russia is relying on these “human wave” tactics \u2014 sending men forward to take and hold land. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

North Korean troops would likely be just as effective in this role as Russian conscripts or mobilized Russians. So, the potential for Russia to use these troops elsewhere is significant. It could give them an edge in Ukraine and potentially enable other military operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

North Korea, on the other hand, isn\u2019t doing this out of charity or camaraderie. They\u2019re gaining something substantial from this. Reports indicate that North Korea is receiving financial compensation, material aid like food supplies, and more crucially, military technologies \u2014 including missile and possibly nuclear technologies. These are areas North Korea has long sought to advance. If they\u2019re obtaining these technologies from Russia now, it\u2019s something they\u2019ll likely look to use, creating a range of security challenges in the Asia-Pacific region. So, the implications of what\u2019s happening in Ukraine are truly global.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Well, that obviously looks to me like the beginning of World War III, if you pardon my frankness. The resources of the North Korean army combined with Russian technology and equipment would allow them to launch various operations. Don\u2019t you think that NATO, as a defensive alliance, must act now, preparing for what could be a defensive war? We\u2019re seeing deep concerns, but how long will that last before the real threat is at the door? Or is there still time for world institutions to rally before it\u2019s too late?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 It\u2019s always possible, and it\u2019s never too late, I would say, but it is certainly late. We\u2019re seeing a major escalation in the war \u2014 a watershed moment for 21st-century history, particularly European history. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the first time, North Korean soldiers are waging war in Europe. That\u2019s unprecedented. And it\u2019s happening because the West has maintained a policy of escalation management in Ukraine \u2014 being very cautious not to provoke Russia, often seeking to de-escalate and show Russia that they\u2019re not seeking confrontation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Russia, however, has taken that as a green light to escalate further, which is why we’re now seeing North Korean troops involved in the invasion.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This is a signal for the West to change its approach. NATO leaders, American leadership, and the West as a whole need to adopt much tougher policies toward Russia, which remains the instigator and orchestrator of this war. The West needs to make it clear to Putin and the Russian leadership that this is being taken far more seriously and that they won\u2019t be intimidated by talk of red lines or the need for de-escalation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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This switch in policy is urgently needed because Russia is clearly responding to Western weakness by escalating. With North Korea entering the war, we have a range of new challenges emerging, and what we\u2019re seeing now is likely just the beginning.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 And what about South Korea? There are rumors that their position on military aid to Ukraine may shift. Are they capable of supplying Ukraine with military packages, despite their proximity to North Korea and the threats they face from ballistic missiles and artillery?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 South Korea has a very sophisticated and well-developed defense industry. They could become a major partner for Ukraine. We\u2019re already seeing South Korea play a larger role in the international defense sector, as evidenced by their contracts with Poland. So, they have the capability to arm Ukraine significantly; it\u2019s really a matter of political will. However, I don\u2019t think South Korea can ignore North Korea\u2019s involvement in Ukraine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

North Korean forces in Ukraine are gaining experience in modern warfare, drone warfare, and electronic warfare. This practical experience is invaluable, especially as these tactics are evolving rapidly on the Ukrainian battlefield. If North Korea gains these skills, they could apply them in future conflicts, including against South Korea, even if not in a full-scale conventional war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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For South Korea, allowing North Korea to gain such experience is a significant risk. They need to consider being involved in Ukraine, helping Ukrainians to counter North Korean troops, and arming Ukraine to ensure they succeed in defending themselves and defeating these North Korean forces.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Let\u2019s hope for that. South Korea is an active defense partner for Poland, but, as you know, defense cooperation between Ukraine and Poland has been tense over the past few months. Do you have any predictions about what might happen next on the front line? We’re seeing a renewed Russian offensive and intensified cooperation with North Korea. How do you see this unfolding?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Everything depends on the outcome of the U.S. elections. Ukraine’s political and military leaders, as well as the rest of Europe, are looking to Washington. The Russians, too, are watching closely. The election will shape the course of the war, even if it doesn\u2019t decide its final outcome. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Currently, the Biden administration has been slow to respond to North Korea’s involvement because they don\u2019t want to admit that their escalation management policies have failed. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Acknowledging North Korean involvement would imply that these policies, followed for almost three years, haven\u2019t worked and that they\u2019ve allowed North Korea to join a European war. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The administration is cautious about this ahead of the elections, as it would give their opponent, Donald Trump, a significant advantage. Trump could use this to argue that Biden\u2019s policies have failed and that he would adopt a tougher stance to deter the West\u2019s opponents. With North Korean soldiers fighting in Europe, it\u2019s clear that the Biden administration\u2019s approach has not succeeded in containing the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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