The Washington Post reported.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\nIn early September, Putin warned that if the West approved Ukraine\u2019s strikes deep into Russia, it would mean Moscow is at war with NATO. Russian propagandists then started brandishing nuclear threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, within the Kremlin, there is growing recognition that the repeated use of nuclear threats is losing its impact, and Moscow’s red lines are continually being crossed. Analysts and officials close to Russian diplomats say Putin is now seeking a more calculated and restrained response to the West if it allows Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike Russian targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThere has been an oversaturation of nuclear threats,” said a Russian official who spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the topic. “There is now immunity to such statements, and they no longer frighten anyone.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Russian academic, closely connected with high-ranking Russian diplomats, agreed, calling the nuclear option \u201cthe least likely\u201d scenario because it would alienate Russia\u2019s partners in the Global South and is not seen as militarily effective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThis entire discussion about the nuclear threshold exaggerates the threat of such escalation and underestimates alternative options,\u201d the academic added. \u201cThe West has a global military infrastructure, and there are many vulnerable points.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putin is exploring different avenues to curb Western support for Ukraine and enforce his red lines, said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the French political consultancy R-Politik. \u201cThere are options he doesn\u2019t want to use, and there are options he is ready to consider now,\u201d she said, noting that Putin views nuclear weapons as “the worst option for everyone, including himself.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nuclear measures or a direct attack on NATO territory would only be considered if Putin felt Russia\u2019s existence in its current form was at risk, Stanovaya said. \u201cIn that case, the West would have to go much further than what is being discussed now.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russian officials have appeared somewhat reassured by the apparent hesitation of the United States to lift restrictions on Ukraine striking military targets deep inside Russia with Western missiles. There is growing expectation that if such permission is granted, it will be \u201cvery limited,\u201d according to analysts and officials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, Putin is still under pressure to respond and prevent his red lines from being continuously crossed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThere is an understanding that the red lines drawn by Moscow are being ignored by the West, and Moscow needs to take more significant steps to show its seriousness,\u201d said the academic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Moscow may respond with covert operations against military or infrastructure targets in the West, where Russian involvement would be hard to prove. It could also turn to proxy groups already fighting against Western interests, like the Houthi militia in Yemen, which attacks ships in the Red Sea, said Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King\u2019s College London.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cHe doesn\u2019t want the situation to escalate into something dramatic or radical, like nuclear weapons or direct combat between our forces and his, but that doesn\u2019t mean something serious isn\u2019t happening,\u201d Freedman said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kremlin-linked political analyst Sergey Markov said there is growing awareness within the Russian military that “Russia has spoiled the West, and we talk a lot about red lines but don\u2019t take action. At some point, we will have to escalate.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Markov suggested that potential responses could include closing the British embassy in Moscow or striking airbases in Poland and Romania where F-16 fighters being deployed to Ukraine are stationed. \u201cSince Russia is confident that strikes on Moscow will inevitably happen, we should strike first,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putin might try to ramp up threatening rhetoric and play the \u201cgolden card\u201d by escalating before the U.S. elections, Markov added. \u201cIf Putin escalates, the U.S. will fear nuclear war, and Trump will win.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Freedman noted that Putin\u2019s nuclear threats are deliberately ambiguous to heighten the sense of danger. \u201cIt sounds threatening, but he never explicitly states what he plans to do. He leaves room for interpretation, and people interpret the worst.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the effectiveness of this approach declines, Putin has yet to devise a replacement strategy, Stanovaya pointed out, noting that uncertainty is growing as \u201cnobody understands\u201d how Putin will ultimately react to each specific action. \u201cI think Putin doesn\u2019t understand either,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Read also:<\/strong> Yermak claims Russia preparing scenario of nuclear disaster<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Kremlin is increasingly aware that the West is not responding to …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":1012576,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[49,36415],"tags":[78],"sources":[],"class_list":["post-1012571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-en","category-11473-news-en","tag-homepage-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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