Yesterday at 23:33
For Russia, historically, the criterion for the effectiveness of warfare is the seizure of new territories. From the point of view of the occupiers, they are conducting quite successful military operations against Ukraine. But the army can win the battle, and the state wins the war. The Russian Federation will not be able to win a war using such an algorithm. This opinion was voiced by military expert, participant in peacekeeping missions in Kosovo and Iraq, Serhii Grabsky, on the FREEDOM TV channel.
“I would not underestimate the enemy today. If we are talking about the traditional way of warfare, from their point of view, they are conducting quite successful military operations. You need to understand the difference in performance evaluation criteria. For us, the criterion of effectiveness is the destruction of the enemy’s combat potential to the maximum. For the enemy, historically, the criterion of effectiveness is the capture of new territories,” Grabsky said.
He emphasized that the Russian authorities do not take losses into account. For them, the more losses, the greater the “greatness of victory.”
“The Russians are waging a war that is understandable to them. Yes, they would, of course, like some kind of massive breakthroughs. Yes, they would like to advance at the front. But they accept rules of the game that allow them to push, push, and push,” the expert noted.
He recalled that after the capture of Avdiivka, Donetsk region, Russian troops continue to press in the area of Chasiv Yar, Maryinka, Georgievka, Novomykhailivka.
“From their point of view, they are conducting normal combat work, not of particularly high intensity, but in the way that their strength and means allow them. That is what they can count on. Moreover, you know, here they are in a rather advantageous position, as they think. Since at any moment they can say, they say, everyone, we have achieved the results of this “special military operation”: there is a corridor to Crimea, the Luhansk region is ours, the Donetsk region is practically ours. All goals have been achieved. They are not capable of more and understand perfectly well. Due not to military factors, but to economic ones. Because the army can win the battle, and the country wins the war. This country, which is still called the Russian Federation, cannot win a war using such an algorithm. But she can lead it for a year, two, 10 years,” the speaker said.
As for society’s perception of the war, according to Grabsky, they do not yet feel its consequences.
“The war is not being waged on Russian territory today. But when we turn military installations on the territory of the Russian Federation into ashes and ruins with concentrated attacks, only then can public opinion change. People will be able to think that maybe something is going wrong. When we destroy critical infrastructure facilities, then society will begin to ask questions: why, exactly? Or the traditional Russian question will arise: what are we for? That’s when the situation can change. In the meantime, they feel comfortable fighting in the numbers they can afford,” the expert said.
When Russians begin to face what the Soviet Union faced in the last years of its existence, that is, the mass production of weapons and military equipment, which was accompanied by a logical decline in the level of the consumer goods market, then something may change, Grabsky believes.
“Some people call such changes conspiracy theories, and some call them a black swan case or whatever. That is, this will already be internal destabilization. Therefore, this may push Russia to some more active actions. They are still limited enough in their resources to use more serious opportunities,” the guest of the broadcast concluded.
