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The railway route “Volnovakha – Tokmak – Dzhankoy” is a rolling road by which the Russians can still quickly deliver supplies to the front. When the Ukrainian defenders de-occupy the city of Tokmak in the Zaporizhzhia region, the southern group of the Russian Armed Forces will find itself in a difficult logistical situation. So, there will be a serious battle for Tokmak, the Russians are already patching holes in their supply. Military analyst Oleksiy Hetman stated this on the air of FREEDOM TV channel.
“I would not like to say that Tokmak is more important than Bakhmut, because it would not be very correct in relation to the people who are fighting there. But Tokmak – there is the railway “Volnovakha – Tokmak – Dzhankoy”, with a branch to the south, to Melitopol. This is a rolling road, in military terminology – these are roads that run parallel to the front line. These roads are even specially made, they may not exist, but during such hostilities, when the group is without movement for a while, a road is immediately made in any way, so that it is possible to quickly transport everything necessary to some areas of the front . Promptly, precisely for this purpose,” he said.
The analyst clarified that this “Volnovakha-Dzhankoy” railway through Tokmak is not just a rolling road, but one of the two main roads, logistical routes, along which the Russians can not only deliver something, but also move large groups of troops, a significant amount of equipment, artillery , in particular missiles.
“They used to transport Calibres on this railway. And Tokmak is one of the centers through which this railway passes. There was already a lot of information about the fact that no one will storm the front of Tokmak when we can surround it, we will cut this road and there are no other railways there, there are no railway bypasses either. Then it will be possible to say that the Crimean group of Russians, the southern group, “Dnipro” they call it, the Kherson group will remain only with the resource it has now as a reserve. Any garrison, any military unit has a certain stock of everything necessary for conducting hostilities. This reserve, depending on the size of the group, if it is a brigade or an army, is calculated for a month, two, three, if you save a lot,” says Hetman.
According to him, after the Defense Forces of Ukraine destroy the Crimean Bridge, the entire southern group of Russians will be unable to supply everything necessary there.
“Until we reach the coast of the Sea of Azov, there will remain a few highways, but they will also be under our artillery control, but on the railway, where you can launch a train of 20, 30, 50 cars and three, four, five, even 10 cars , — this will not give the Russians the opportunity to provide the southern, Kherson and Crimean groups with everything they need. Therefore, there will be a very serious battle for Tokmak on the part of the Russians. They are already transferring there, pulling out all their reserves from wherever they can,” the military analyst added.
At the same time, he emphasized that the occupying army has no possibility to add reserves from the depths of the Russian Federation, “no matter what anyone says.” According to Hetman, the Russians are moving troops along the front line.
“For example, two divisions moved to the Tokmak direction – the 76th amphibious division from the Kupyansk direction and the 7th mining and amphibious division from the Kherson direction. Although part of the 76th division is already moving from the Tokmak direction to the Bakhmut direction. That is, they patch holes, they call it “Trishkin kaptan”. That is, somewhere they patched the patch, but by cutting a hole somewhere else. Bakhmut is also of great political and emotional significance for us and for Russians. Moreover, the president of our country said that we will release him in the near future. But the Volnovakh direction is also very important, the entire Southern direction – Berdyanskyi, Melitopolskyi, Volnovaskyi directions – these are precisely the battles for this railway, which supplies everything necessary to the Russian troops. If you look at their fortifications, which they built, except for Tokmak, which they fortified in a circle, then, by and large, all their first, second and third lines of defense run parallel to this railway,” he said.
The Russian occupiers, the analyst noted, are not fighting for some settlements there.
“Our military perfectly understands that this railway is, in fact, the key to Crimea, and the Russians will fight for it. All these fortifications of theirs are built parallel to this road, they protect the road, not some settlement. If, not only according to the reports of the American Institute for the Study of War, but also according to our official channels, we have already passed the third line of their defense, then, by and large, the field is clear. They will also fight there, resist, but there will be no such fortifications. It can be expected that we will take this railway under control very soon, and when we control the logistics routes of the Russians, then Crimea will remain for two – maximum three months and that’s it. Then they simply will have nothing to fight for. They won’t be worse off, they just won’t have anything. This is very important,” summed up Oleksiy Hetman.
