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U.S. intelligence services believe that Russia is likely to respond more forcefully, possibly with lethal attacks, against the U.S. and its coalition partners if they agree to grant Ukraine permission to use long-range missiles to strike deep within Russian territory.
This was reported by The New York Times.
The intelligence assessment, which had not been previously reported, downplays the impact that long-range missiles might have on the course of the conflict, as Ukraine currently has a limited supply of such weapons, and it is unclear how many more, if any, Western allies can provide.
The assessment highlights what intelligence analysts see as the potential risks and uncertain benefits of approving such long-range strikes into Russia.
These findings may partly explain why Biden has struggled to make a decision on this matter, and they shed light on the internal pressure he faces, which has led him to deny Zelenskyy’s request.
American officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it remains unclear what Biden will ultimately decide.
Zelenskyy has lobbied both publicly and privately for the authority to use such missiles.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin has frequently resorted to threats to deter the U.S. and its coalition partners from providing Ukraine with more advanced weapon systems.
Critics of Biden and his advisers argue that they are too easily intimidated by Putin’s hostile rhetoric and that the administration’s gradual approach to arming Ukraine has put them at a disadvantage on the battlefield.
Supporters of the administration’s approach argue that it has been largely successful in preventing a harsh Russian response.
British leaders have been less risk-averse. They have advocated for allowing Ukrainians to use long-range missiles that the U.K. has provided to strike deep within Russia. However, they have awaited Biden’s position on the matter before authorizing such strikes, as Russia’s potential response could have security implications for the coalition as a whole.
The intelligence report outlines several possible Russian actions in response to the decision to allow long-range strikes with U.S. and European-made missiles—ranging from an escalation of arson and sabotage at sites in Europe to potentially deadly attacks on U.S. and European military bases.
U.S. officials state that the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence agency, has been responsible for most acts of sabotage in Europe to date.
If Putin decides to expand his shadow campaign in response to the use of U.S. and European missiles deep within Russia, American officials believe that Russia would likely continue to act covertly rather than launching open attacks on U.S. and European targets to reduce the risk of a broader conflict.
On September 25, Putin stated that Russia would expand the conditions under which it is prepared to use nuclear weapons.
The EU has said that Putin’s new nuclear threats will not change the European Union’s position on continuing support for Ukraine.
The U.K.’s Foreign Secretary stated that a decision to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western long-range weapons against military targets in Russia could be made before winter.
Read also: Blinken confirmed the allocation of $5.55 billion for weapons for Ukraine in the coming months
