Today at 01:00
With an insightful talk on Russia’s true capabilities while their oil refineries and depots continue to burn to the ground.
Ukrainian strategy was extremely successful during the Kursk incursion. While it did not succeed in diverting Russia’s resources from Pokrovsk, large territories of Russia came under Ukraine’s control.
This topics were explained in and interview with the author and owner of the @WarthogProduction Channel Sead Rizvanovic.
— The first question will be about the potential Belarusian accumulation of troops on the border with Ukraine. Lukashenko tries to project power, but is there a real danger to it?
— Well, Lukashenko is trying to do more, in my opinion. He is trying to create some leverage on the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. He’s attempting to put pressure on Ukrainian Armed Forces by building up troops on the border, creating the appearance that he could attack Ukraine or conduct an invasion from Belarus.
But I think that’s not a very likely scenario right now for several reasons. One of them is that Lukashenko is, I think, smarter than that.
He’s been careful not to involve Belarus directly in the war in Ukraine, despite his close relations with Russia and their defensive pact.
I don’t think he’s going to do that, especially since the West has so many tools to pressure him, like more sanctions that haven’t been applied yet. They’re keeping him on a tight leash, so I believe this move is more about applying additional pressure on Ukraine, likely instrumented by Putin. But an invasion from Belarus seems very unlikely.
— Returning to the Kursk region and Russia’s response, everyone in the West was scared of escalation. They said Russia would hit you with 100 missiles, but we’re already facing hundreds of missiles each month. There was indeed a streak of massive drone and missile strikes for four days, and we lost one F-16. It was confirmed. How do you see the events unfolding with F-16s, Western help, and their relentless refusal to allow us to hit Russia with Western weapons?
— That story about escalation is not strange but not a very relevant argument. As you said, Russians are hitting Ukraine with everything they have and have been doing so for almost three years. I don’t know what kind of escalation there would be—nuclear attack or what?
Russia is doing everything it can to destroy Ukraine. I think the move by General Syrskyi in Kursk is a brilliant one. It’s something that any commander would do—find a weak spot and strike it.
This is legitimate self-defense under the UN Charter. Syrskyi’s move has shifted Western media attention back to Ukraine, showing that Ukrainian Armed Forces can still innovate in their tactics, even when many thought there was nothing left to do.
This move has not only created military problems for Russia but also huge political problems for Putin. Now, in the third year of his failed invasion of Ukraine, we’re talking about how to defend Russian territory, which is very bad for both the Russian military and politics.
— Yes, indeed. We see that Russians are still pressing on Pokrovsk. Their forces weren’t diverted from the main direction of strike. Do you think that’s part of an agony, especially with Russian oil refineries burning every night due to Ukrainian long-range drone strikes? We’ve allegedly had some Ukrainian missiles striking Russian oil depots in temporarily occupied territories. Also, a Kursk is on the defense, and we have Russian territory taken by Ukrainian forces.
Do you see their pressing on Pokrovsk as the last territorial gain they are willing to make until they recuperate, considering that oil is very crucial for them?
— Yes, the strikes on oil refineries have been one of Ukraine’s best tactics in the past year. This creates a lot of pressure on Russia—economically, politically, and militarily. We see fuel shortages in Russia, which is problematic not just for the military but also for the civilian population. There’s also a huge PR impact from these strikes. Russia even demanded that the United States pressure Ukraine to stop these attacks, but I don’t think that’s going to happen.
Regarding Pokrovsk, the Russian military has adapted since the start of the war, when they were much worse off than they are now.
But again, they haven’t shown significant improvement in their warfare. They still rely on vast reserves of Soviet-era armor and weapons, and disposable manpower with meat-grinder tactics.
Despite claims that Russia’s reserves are limitless and that they can never lose, history has shown otherwise, not only in Afghanistan or the First Chechen War but many centuries back. This is also happening in Pokrovsk.
They’re using their reserves, throwing soldiers into battle, and suffering many casualties, but they continue because Putin needs to show some success. He has to seize some territory, so they’re likely to continue in the Pokrovsk direction.
However, their capabilities are shrinking—manpower, weapons, everything. Attacks on strategic infrastructure create significant problems for them, and their reserves are not limitless. Those limits are closing in.
Read also: Ukrainian military developments. Interview with Ivan Stupak
