Yesterday at 19:58
The head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, stated that Russia aims to end the war against Ukraine by the end of 2025 or early 2026 with its victory. This is because, by the summer of 2025, Russia will face serious economic issues and the need for mobilization.
Budanov said this at the 20th annual YES meeting in Kyiv on September 13-14.
“The year 2025, the end of 2025 – the beginning of 2026, is crucial for them. They want to finish everything by then because, according to their own calculations, if Russia does not emerge as a ‘victor’ from this war, for the next 30 years, they will no longer be able to envision themselves as a superpower, which is their goal.” the head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate said.
According to Budanov, Russia predicts that “all their problems will begin in the summer of 2025,” when economic, financial, and socio-political factors will converge.
“They predict that around the summer of 2025, the negative impact on the economy will become very noticeable for their country,” Budanov added.
He also noted that Russia faces growing challenges in meeting military recruitment targets. “At that time (summer 2025), they will face a dilemma – either announce mobilization or somehow reduce the intensity of military operations, which could be critical for them,” he said.
The intelligence chief further added that Ukraine’s efforts to extend combat operations into Russia’s territory have also affected the psychological state of the Russian population.
Budanov, citing Russian documents, said that if Russia fails to achieve victory by the end of 2025, only two superpowers— the U.S. and China — will remain in the world, and Russia will not be part of that group.
“They clearly understand this. For them, this is a key period. They will do everything possible to win in their view. Otherwise, they will be excluded from all global processes. The only thing they can hope for is regional leadership, which is not acceptable to them,” Budanov concluded.
