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The Kremlin has initiated a complex information campaign aimed at justifying to its domestic audience why Russia is focusing on maintaining the initiative in eastern Ukraine rather than immediately pushing Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region.
According to sources close to the Russian Presidential Administration, as reported by the Russian publication “Meduza,” the Kremlin is working hard to convince Russian society to accept a limited Ukrainian presence in the Kursk region as the “new norm.” The campaign seeks to downplay the significance of Ukrainian troops in the region, portraying it as a temporary situation that will be resolved after Ukraine’s “inevitable” defeat in eastern Ukraine.
The Kremlin plans to use propaganda to encourage Russians to be patient, suggesting that Russian forces will eventually retake these territories. Additionally, the Kremlin is redirecting public concern about the Kursk region by focusing attention on humanitarian aid campaigns for residents affected by the conflict. Despite the tensions, the Kremlin has decided to proceed with the upcoming gubernatorial election in the Kursk region, scheduled for September, in an effort to avoid panic.
However, Russia’s Central Election Commission has postponed local elections in seven conflict-affected districts of the Kursk region due to security concerns.
Russian state media have increasingly depicted the Kursk region and its residents as supporters of Russia’s military efforts in Ukraine, despite some disruptions to daily life. State TV channels, in particular, portray Ukraine’s operation in the Kursk region as limited and emphasize the Russian advance in other areas, such as Pokrovsk, as significant victories.
This messaging campaign may be a way for the Kremlin to buy time, allowing it to respond to the Ukrainian operation once it achieves its offensive objectives in eastern Ukraine. Meduza’s sources revealed that the Kremlin was initially shocked by Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region, but the concern subsided within a week as Ukrainian troops moved away from densely populated areas.
Officials interviewed by Meduza expressed confidence that the conflict in the Kursk region will continue at its current scale for months. This suggests that the Kremlin may not be in a rush to expel Ukrainian forces but will instead continue prioritizing its offensive in eastern Ukraine.
President Putin has reportedly demanded that order be restored in the Kursk region without compromising the stability of his regime, the priorities of the eastern offensive, or the loyalty of his lieutenants, despite their incompetence.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that it is too early to predict the outcomes of this strategy. Meduza’s sources also mentioned that the Kremlin had considered a new wave of mobilization at the start of the invasion but faced opposition from the Russian Cabinet of Ministers and Kremlin-linked businessmen due to concerns over Russia’s ongoing labor shortage. It’s unclear whether the Kremlin has fully taken this argument into account.
Read also: Ukrainian forces continue their offensive in Kursk region – ISW
