The January U.S. sanctions could deal a serious blow to the Russian economy, with a significant portion of oil exports now at risk

The January U.S. sanctions could deal a serious blow to the Russian economy, with a significant portion of oil exports now at risk, The Moscow Times reports, citing analysts close to the Kremlin.

A Russian government-affiliated think tank has modeled a scenario incorporating the new sanctions and compared it to a baseline projection without them, offering insight into potential economic damage. The findings suggest that risks to Russia’s external economic environment have risen sharply.

Key targets of the sanctions include major oil companies like Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, maritime insurers Ingosstrakh and AlfaStrakhova, and over 150 tankers and other vessels involved in transporting Russian hydrocarbons. Additionally, intermediaries are facing greater pressure to comply with restrictions.

Beyond sanctions, U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a significant increase in U.S. oil production, which could drive down global prices, further straining Russia’s oil revenue.

If these risks materialize, Russia could lose around $50 billion in export revenue annually—$47 billion in 2025, $57 billion in 2026, and $52 billion in 2027. This would result from declining oil and gas exports, lower global prices, and an increasing discount on Russian oil.

The ruble is expected to depreciate further under this scenario. By 2027, the average annual exchange rate could reach 132.3 rubles per dollar, compared to 109.4 rubles per dollar in the baseline projection. Oil production is projected to drop in tandem with exports—by 30 million tons in 2025, 43 million tons in 2026, and 35 million tons in 2027. Pipeline gas exports are also expected to shrink by 4–5 billion cubic meters per year.

The price of Urals crude is forecast to be about $7 lower than it would be without the January sanctions. The ruble’s decline will contribute to inflation, with an expected rise of 1 percentage point this year, 0.6 points next year, and 0.2 points in 2027. In response, the Russian Central Bank may be forced to raise its key interest rate to 23% in the first half of the year.

Despite these pressures, some experts believe the full impact remains uncertain. Economist Sofia Donets notes that the effect on exporters and logistics is still unclear, while oil and gas analyst Sergei Vakulenko suggests Russian companies had time to prepare, potentially limiting immediate losses. However, in the long run, these sanctions could gradually erode Russia’s export revenues.

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