Survey: Over 20% of Ukrainians Doubt Ukraine Will Ever Join NATO

NATO flag. Photo: ukrinform.ua

A recent Gallup survey reveals that over 20% of Ukrainians believe their country will never be accepted into NATO, marking a 10-percentage-point increase compared to 2022.

Respondents were asked when they expect Ukraine to join NATO: within the next 10 years, in 10–20 years, after 20 years, or “never.”

  • 51% believe NATO membership will happen within 10 years, a significant drop from nearly 70% in 2023.
  • 12% foresee membership in 10–20 years, while 4% think it will take over two decades.
  • 22% are skeptical, saying Ukraine will never join NATO—a 12-point rise since last year.

Optimism about Ukraine’s EU membership also declined, though the numbers remain higher.

  • 61% believe Ukraine could join the EU within the next decade (down from 73% in 2022–23).
  • 14% think it will take longer, and 15% doubt EU membership will ever happen.

The survey, conducted in August 2024, also highlights diminishing approval of U.S. administration actions among Ukrainians, returning to pre-war levels, while Germany’s ratings remain steady.

Separately, another poll suggests that a majority of Ukrainians (over 50%) expect EU accession within 3–5 years, with significant optimism for even shorter timelines.