Today at 17:57
Sanctions against russia, are they working and how exactly? Can Trump and Saudi Arabia dump oil prices and tear russian economy? Or russian economy is doing alright and even is growing? If that would be up to our expert “Razom We Stand” Director Svitlana Romanko – what sanctions she would have introduced?
— Sanctions against Russia. Well, some say they’re not working well enough because of the famous business paradigm—“just business, nothing personal.” It seems impenetrable, and there’s nothing people like you and me can do about it. Russia still sells oil and even buys navigation microchips for its missiles, which are fired at Ukraine every day. Meanwhile, the West shares its deepest concerns and fears of escalation. So, my question is: are sanctions working or not?
— Yes, sanctions are working. It’s a misconception to suggest they aren’t effective at all. In the past, we collectively managed to deprive Russia of $400 billion in fossil fuel profits. As we can see now, Russian profits have significantly decreased, especially for Gazprom, which lost 75% of its profit in 2023.
I do agree with you that sanctions could be much more effective. There’s a pressing need to enforce them properly, introduce criminal liability for sanctions violations, and impose new, stricter measures. For instance, sanctions on Russian LNG and closing loopholes for refined oil products would be vital steps.
— Sure, but Trump alone—or Trump and Saudi Arabia together—could turn this into a joke for Putin by dumping oil prices. How likely is that to happen? Am I right?
— I think you could be highly right—there’s about an 80% chance. If the price of Russian oil drops below $40 per barrel, their economy will collapse. I’m hopeful we’ll see this in the first few months after Trump assumes the presidency in full.
Of course, Russia must be punished for the war in Ukraine. This punishment should include sanctions and a complete blocking of financial services for Russian fossil fuels, Rosneft, LNG projects, and Novatek operations in Siberia, the Yamal Peninsula, and other northern regions.
— I think you could be highly right—there’s about an 80% chance. If the price of Russian oil drops below $40 per barrel, their economy will collapse. I’m hopeful we’ll see this in the first few months after Trump assumes the presidency in full.
— You mentioned the collapse of the Russian economy—that’s music to my ears! But some say the Russian economy is doing all right, even somewhat growing, despite the war. Is that true, or is it just temporary? What’s the reality?
— The only ones claiming that the Russian economy is thriving are the Russians themselves. The data we have tells a different story. Inflation in Russia has reached nearly 11%, the ruble is declining, and Western technology is blocked.
Russia is forced to sell oil at a discount, and India has recently stopped purchasing Russian oil, shrinking their market further. Their sovereign wealth fund is also depleting, leaving little money for military spending.
Several research think tanks predict a significant economic decline next year if we tighten sanctions further, especially by banning Russian fossil gas in Europe and lowering the price cap for Russian oil.
— I love hearing this—Russia grinding to a halt economically. But if it were up to you, what sanctions would you introduce as the cherry on top to ensure the Russian Federation goes down?
— If I were a G7 political leader, I would immediately impose a full oil and fossil gas ban. This should have happened at the start of the full-scale invasion. Germany’s initial opposition slowed progress, but we now see that delaying sanctions has hurt them as well.
Half-measures and weak political will are what we’re observing. Real enforcement of sanctions is needed. We also need to impose restrictions on third countries still buying Russian oil, refined products, and LNG.
Europe, as the leader of the democratic world, must take a stand. Instead, they’ve recently increased their purchases of Russian LNG. This hypocrisy—choosing electoral gains over real action—allows Russia to continue terrorizing Ukraine, committing genocide, and destabilizing the world.
Read also: The Global War Is On! Russia VS. NATO in Ukraine, Syria and Georgia. Interview with Peter Dickinson
