Russian occupiers failed the largest tank offensive near Avdiivka – analysis of a military observer

David Sharp. Photo:

The Russian occupiers showed ignorance and failed the largest tank offensive since the beginning of the full-scale invasion near Tonenkiy in the Avdiivka area of the Donetsk region. Military observer (Israel) David Sharp spoke about this on the FREEDOM TV channel.

“Obviously, this is not a miscalculation, but the problem lies somewhat deeper… The point is not even that this is a failure. It is important to look at what the reason is. The reason is the planning of an offensive operation that is completely inconsistent with reality, when tank forces and tank units with armored vehicles are not used properly. When the threat from the defenders is not neutralized, when there is no direct support and backup during the attack. In general, many things that, with proper planning, should be carried out here, were not done. What they were counting on is unclear. Maybe for some reason they thought that they would be able to take the enemy by surprise or something similar. However, such calculations in themselves are inappropriate,” he said.

According to Sharpe, there is an absolutely irresponsible use of armored vehicles by the Russian army.

“Here, first of all, we should talk about illiteracy… Undoubtedly, heavy losses were suffered there, but this was something close to defeat and, in general, a loss of part of the combat capability and psychological shock, and failure, and whatever. That is, at the local level, this battalion has noticeably lost its combat effectiveness, and the company on the infantry fighting vehicles – even more so. How much to restore is the question. That is, this kind of unit is no longer capable of solving the tasks that they tried to set before the attack…”, he emphasized.

The military observer noted that as a result of the defeat at Tonenkoye, the Russian occupiers lost half of the monthly production of new tanks.

“It is generally accepted that they produce from 15 to 25 new tanks per month and plus remove old equipment from storage. Apparently, many dozens, up to a hundred or so, are being restored. If we take it high, then half the monthly production rate of Russian tanks is lost in the shortest possible time. As for the local area – it’s important to know – if there are reserves there, if there is ready-made equipment that can replace those who have retired, then this, in general, is quite fast. But there is significantly less equipment, because losing so many vehicles may not be much on the scale of the entire front, but on the scale of a local area, where, say, only a couple of battalions are involved in a fairly wide area, a third of a battalion is a lot. And, of course, this is a serious blow for those who participated in such a battle, which was absolutely incompetently planned and ended in a fiasco,” Sharp explained.

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Let us remind you that on March 30, the Russian army intended to break through the Ukrainian defenses in the Avdiivka area. As a result, the occupiers lost 12 tanks and 8 infantry fighting vehicles.