Russian military reserves are being depleted – OSINT analysis, comments and forecasts

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OSINT analysts, that is, those who engage in intelligence based on open sources (Open source intelligence), state: by 2026, Russia will experience problems on the battlefield with the presence of certain types of armored vehicles, as well as modern tanks. This will happen despite the attempts of the Russian Ministry of Defense to increase the production of military equipment and speed up the repair of those that were damaged, FREEDOM reports.

Soldiers of the 72nd separate mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine showed footage filmed in the Donetsk region. The video shows broken Russian tanks, armored vehicles and several dozen motorcycles. These images, analysts say, are direct evidence that Russia has begun to experience a hunger for armored vehicles.

“The multiple increase in the use of motorcycles, buggies and ATVs at the front is not so much a consequence of military ingenuity, but rather a forced measure associated with the depletion of reserves of armored vehicles capable of delivering infantry to enemy positions,” Radio Liberty reports, citing OSINT analysts .

As one of the most striking examples of the devastation of Russian storage facilities for tanks, armored vehicles and artillery, analysts cite a storage base in the village of Lesnoy Gorodok near Chita.

“At the start of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, there were mortars, towed artillery, and self-propelled artillery units. Now, in the same place, there are basically only military trucks,” Osinter said in an interview with Radio Liberty.

Referring to open sources, experts note that the ratio of equipment losses between Ukraine and Russia is approximately 1:2.7. For tanks – 1:3.7, for armored infantry vehicles – 1:4.4. The British Royal United Institute for Defense Studies states that as of February 2024, the Russian army had about 2 thousand serviceable tanks remaining at its disposal. Whereas before 2022 there were more than 3 thousand of them. Even despite the fact that the Russian Ministry of Defense is intensively repairing damaged equipment, by 2026 Russia may not have T-80 and T-72 tanks left.

“Of course, the Russians still have some stocks of equipment from the 60s and 80s of the last century. But it takes a lot of time to carry out routine maintenance, work on restoring defense equipment in order to put it into the ranks of the Russian army. This requires human, material, and time efforts. And of course, the Russians are wasting their resources and may come to the point that in 2026 their defense capabilities will be virtually emasculated,” comments military expert Vladislav Seleznev.

Meanwhile, in the Belgorod region, as a result of an unmanned aerial vehicle strike, the work of the Oskol Electrometallurgical Plant named after Ugarov was stopped. The enterprise is one of the key ones for the Russian military-industrial complex.

“This is the only full-cycle metallurgical enterprise in Russia. It’s stopped. And let’s say that in the coming months, resuming work in full will be problematic there. This means a complication and disruption in the implementation of defense orders, and, accordingly, supply chains,” commented Andrey Yusov, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, on the air of the “United News” marathon.

Today, the Russian Federation is forced to look for sources to replenish its military reserves. For this purpose, in particular, Putin arranged a tour to the so-called allied countries: China, North Korea, Vietnam.

“There are certain supplies of equipment from satellite countries, for example, in 2022, the Russian army exported armored equipment from the Republic of Belarus. There are certain contracts and agreements for the supply of relevant equipment with the North Korean government. But, of course, these supply volumes cannot solve the current problems of the Russian occupiers. Some military experts argue that the resources needed are 80% of the resource capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army of the People’s Republic of China. Is China ready for this? Of course not. Other satellite countries: Belarus’ resources are virtually exhausted, there are reserves in North Korea, but there are big discussions about the quality,” noted military expert Vladislav Seleznev.

At the same time, experts are confident that if supplies of the necessary weapons to Ukraine this year are ensured in full, then Russia has no prospects of conquering significant Ukrainian territories in the next few years. And from 2026, Russian military power will weaken.

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Let us remind you that, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, 8,153 Russian tanks have been destroyed on the battlefield, of which 11 in the last 24 hours, 15,629 armored vehicles, 18 in the last 24 hours, 20,053 vehicles. and tank trucks, 76 in the last 24 hours.