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British intelligence suggests that Russia might have mistakenly attacked a civilian merchant vessel carrying Ukrainian wheat to Egypt.
The UK Defense Ministry said this in an intelligence update published on X, Ukrinform reports.
On September 11, 2024, the Merchant Vessel (MV) Aya was struck by a missile in the Black Sea as it transited south from the Ukrainian port of Odesa having been loaded with more than 26,000 tonnes of grain bound for Egypt. It is almost certain that the missile was an AS-4 KITCHEN (Kh-22) anti-ship missile launched by a Tu-22M3 BACKFIRE Russian bomber that was operating in the area at the time.
“It is a realistic possibility that a detonation failure avoided catastrophic damage. It is unlikely that the MV Aya was the intended target for this mission and was likely struck due to poor targeting procedures from Russian pilots using an aging munition,” the update said.
Russia has regularly attacked targets along Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline, including Snake Island, as they attempt to disrupt export activity and degrade any military assets in the area. Following the loss of a BACKFIRE in April this year, Russia has almost certainly been more wary with their strike operations in the Black Sea.
“It is a realistic possibility this incident occurred due to pilots incorrectly identifying MV Aya as their target in haste, wanting to depart the area immediately after launch for fear of being targeted by a Ukrainian surface to air missile,” British intelligence said.
Analysts noted that the KITCHEN missile has consistently underperformed in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
“Launching a supersonic cruise missile on an incorrect heading against a likely erroneous target in international waters demonstrates extremely poor and irresponsible aviation practice,” the update reads.
Read also: Putin should not expect Western support for Ukraine to wane – Scholz
