Today at 14:47
Russia continues to suffer enormous losses in the war of aggression against Ukraine. In October, the number of killed and wounded occupiers was the largest since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, but the Russian army can hardly be called exhausted, as in the first half of 2024, Russia managed to mobilize about 900 people daily, writes The New York Times.
“In October, Russian forces achieved the greatest territorial gains in the past two years, advancing further into Ukraine’s eastern region – Donbas – but did so at a great cost.
British and Ukrainian military officials, as well as BBC researchers, claim that this month Russia suffered the largest losses among its soldiers – killed and wounded. The arrival of thousands of North Korean troops to Russia also raises questions about whether the Kremlin has enough soldiers to compensate for its losses.” publication writes.
The publication adds that both Russia and Ukraine carefully conceal data about their losses, but researchers and journalists have found innovative ways to count the number of Russian soldiers who died in the war or were so severely wounded that they can no longer fight.
Among these methods are obituary data, cemetery records, disability payments, and notarial databases.
Journalists and researchers suggest that Russia has lost more soldiers in this war than any industrialized country in a conflict since World War II.
Journalists from the Russian publication “Mediazona” and the Russian BBC Service count Russian soldiers killed in the war by collecting and cross-checking public information, such as news, obituaries, photos of gravestones from cemeteries, etc.
“This work has created the most comprehensive database of confirmed Russian combat losses: 78,000 soldiers as of November, not including Ukrainian separatists and foreigners fighting on Russia’s side. (A similar but less transparent calculation of Ukraine’s losses as of mid-November revealed 65,000 dead soldiers),” writes NYT.
At the same time, the publication emphasizes that “Mediazona’s” count is incomplete, as some soldiers leave no trace after death. The journalists themselves believe they have recorded about half of all deaths of Russian servicemen.
Another statistical analysis of war losses was conducted by the Russian news outlet “Meduza,” “Mediazona,” and the BBC. Their main tool was the database of the Russian state notary, which contains all inheritance cases opened by relatives of deceased soldiers. This mortality analysis allowed journalists to estimate the total number of Russian military deaths at nearly 150,000 as of late October.
BBC, “Mediazona,” and “Meduza” journalists also attempted to calculate the number of severe combat injuries sustained by Russians on the battlefield. They consulted military experts, analyzed leaked personnel lists, and studied veteran compensation statistics, concluding that for every dead Russian soldier, there are about two severely wounded.
Summarizing the approximate number of killed and severely wounded, Meduza estimated that by the end of October, Russian forces had suffered a total of 405,000 irreversible losses (killed and severely wounded, unable to fight again). Using a similar method, Olga Ivshina from the BBC counted 484,000 irreversible Russian losses for the same period.
Military intelligence from Ukraine and many NATO countries provides their own estimates of Russian losses. All of them state that as of October, Russia has lost between 600,000 and 700,000 soldiers, killed and wounded.
The publication emphasizes that these agencies do not disclose their methods, while officials and military analysts familiar with the calculations say that intelligence usually releases the “upper limit” of their internal estimates, including minor injuries.
However, NYT reminds us that despite the losses, Russia still has a reserve for mobilization.
“Certainly, losses are only one side of the coin. In a war of attrition, as is happening in Ukraine, another important variable is the formation of new troops.
In June, the Russian Ministry of Defense counted 33 million men eligible for military service, according to a government database obtained by Meduza. This is compared to 6 million potential soldiers who lived in Ukraine before Russia’s invasion in 2022,” the publication writes.
According to an analysis of Russian budget data conducted by Janis Kluge, a Russia expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, in the first half of this year, about 900 men joined the Russian armed forces daily.
NYT reminds us that Russians are attracted by steadily increasing bonuses, salaries, and compensation payments for those who sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Kremlin is also looking for new fighters outside its borders, recruiting volunteers from dozens of developing countries and troops from its ally North Korea.
“Such recruitment rates have allowed Russian forces not only to replenish losses but also to create new units. This month, the Pentagon announced that the Kremlin had assembled combined forces of 50,000 Russian and North Korean military personnel to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region of Russia,” concludes NYT.
