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Russia continues scaling up “Shahed” drone production ahead of the 2024-2025 winter campaign against Ukraine despite sanctions and technical limitations.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported on this development.
According to ISW analysts, citing Ukrainian intelligence, a Russian factory in the “Alabuga” special economic zone in the Republic of Tatarstan produced 5,760 “Shahed” drones between January and September 2024. This output is double the production in 2023. Leaked documents reveal that the facility has already signed a deal to produce 6,000 drones by September 2025.
It is also reported that Russia is actively developing low-tech decoy drones resembling “Shaheds” to bypass Ukraine’s air defense systems. Plans include manufacturing up to 10,000 such decoys by the end of 2024, nearly double the number of strike drones.
The report notes that Russia has constructed two new workshops at the Alabuga plant and installed protective anti-drone nets over the buildings. To enhance logistics, a railway station with direct connections between Russia and China has been built, facilitating the supply of necessary components for drone production.
“Russia’s military is likely to continue adapting its strike strategies to target Ukraine’s critical infrastructure while increasing the production of ‘Shahed’ drones. The signing of a strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Iran in January 2025 may further support this process,” the analysis states.
However, analysts also note that Russia faces challenges in providing high-quality components for its factories due to Western sanctions. As a result, it has been forced to use low-quality Chinese-made engines. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are effectively countering “Shahed” attacks through innovations in electronic warfare.
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