Today at 12:36
How does China influence Moscow? Why is it beneficial for Beijing to support Russia in the war against Ukraine? Who will benefit more from the war in Ukraine – Russia or China? Does China need a real victory for Russia in the war against Ukraine? China is a major world player and it is getting Russia more and more dependent on its political will.
These topics Henry Keen has discussed with Oleksandr Khara, a Ukrainian diplomat with experience and an expert in world politics. Watch more to know all the details of this thoughtful interview.
— China will guide peace together with Moscow, but whatever comrade Xi says, he says it regularly. Is that a relationship that Putin can actually rely on?
— Well, first of all, let me not be a diplomat here and call it an oxymoron because it’s not possible to be with Russia and aim for peace in the largest conflict in Europe since 1945, with all signs of genocide and war crimes.
So, if Beijing sides with Moscow on that, it certainly isn’t aiming for peace; it’s aiming to aid its junior partner in getting out of this corner.
While Russia is not losing now, it’s definitely not winning, and it’s at the peak of its possibilities—relying on generating forces and receiving assistance from countries like Iran and others.
That’s why China wants to help its junior partner and stabilize relations with the European Union and NATO, fearing secondary sanctions from the U.S. and its allies because of China’s support for Russian aggression in Ukraine.
China gets everything it wants from Russia: political concessions and cheap resources. For example, Russia has been trying to sell gas through the pipeline to China for over a decade, but the Chinese weren’t interested for various reasons. First, they’re not dependent on gas; they can buy what they need on the spot market. The Chinese were only willing to accept the pipeline if Russia financed it. Plus, they wanted Russian gas at domestic prices, which is absurd. However, Russia might finally agree because it needs cash and assistance to continue its war.
— Xi Jinping, China, Orban, Hungary, Slovakia, Brazil—they call themselves friends of peace. What does that even mean? There’s talk about a peace summit in friendship, maybe even with Zelenskyy and Putin. Can you comment on that?
— Yes, Putin is a “peace-loving” gentleman—he wants pieces of Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and maybe Poland too. Regarding this particular group—Brazil, for example—back in 2014, when Dilma Rousseff was president, Brazil didn’t vote for Ukraine’s territorial integrity at the UN; they abstained. Brazil’s position has often leaned towards Russia, even during Bolsonaro’s presidency in 2022 when they condemned Russian aggression. So, there’s nothing new here. Brazil’s current government, being Marxist, sees the U.S. as the imperial power provoking Russia through NATO expansion.
China’s long-term goal is to slowly push the U.S. out and take over its leadership role, and they’re not in a rush. Russia, on the other hand, started this war in 2022 because it doesn’t have time.
China is happy having Russia as its junior partner while demolishing the rules-based international order. Brazil supports China’s approach because they’re not happy with the U.S. and Europe, and they want a new world order.
Each country wants its own system—Russia wants a tripolar world with the U.S., China, and Russia ruling, while China thinks of a bipolar world. Xi Jinping even proposed this to Biden, saying the world is big enough for two countries to flourish. Biden responded by calling Xi an authoritarian, which shows that the U.S. isn’t in the mood for spheres of influence. Biden still supports a value-based foreign policy, but it seems everyone is more or less content with the situation.
— Do you believe Putin doesn’t realize that China is not a long-term partner, that China is too powerful and won’t trade its future with the West for what Russia can offer?
— No, Putin doesn’t understand it. Even in the 1990s, Yevgeny Primakov—an ex-prime minister—had a doctrine that Russia needed to regain control over the post-Soviet space, stop NATO’s expansion, and leverage China against the U.S. But back then, Russia was too weak to repeat the Cold War, where it had control over large territories.
Putin thinks he’s following that strategy now, but the reality is very different. China dominates the electronic vehicle market, for example, because Russia lost its European and U.S. suppliers due to sanctions. China filled that gap immediately.
Russia is acting against its economic interests and against the interests of ordinary Russians by having this confrontation with the West and this genocidal war against Ukraine. Ukraine has never been a threat, not even as a NATO member. We are dealing with irrationality and wishful thinking that Russia can confront the West without becoming a junior partner to stronger powers.
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