Possible Russian offensive in Ukraine: an interview with Sungurovsky

In the coming months, we should expect an aggravation of the situation at the front. The Russian occupiers will attempt offensive actions as Putin tries to incite the West countries to force Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire and freeze the conflict. This opinion was expressed on the air of the marathon “Ukraine Speaks” by the TV channels “Dom” and UA, the director of military programs of the Ukrainian Center for Economic and Political Studies Nikolay Sungurovsky.

The expert explained the tactics of the invaders:

“In order to have a strong position in the negotiations, they will carry out not only offensive operations at the front. But also a kind of special psychological operations, using all types of weapons and pressure, including food, energy, and nuclear security. It is wrong to assess the situation at the front exclusively.”

He believes that Ukraine will be able to intercept and increase the initiative in the war:

“War is a competition between two more skillful sides. There is nothing to say about the art of Russia’s military leadership. We have already seen that there it is not something that is in doubt. It is in the background after political decisions. We have the opposite. Zelensky and the Office of the President have repeatedly confirmed that they do not interfere in the development of plans and in the actions of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny, the General Staff, the Ministry of Defense. Therefore, our forces have the opportunity to act much more quickly in different sectors of the front. Moreover, we have such an initiative. We clearly respond to changes in the structure of the enemy grouping.”

Sungurovsky is convinced that Ukrainian military can be ahead of the enemy not only in defense but also in offensive operations. At the same time, he emphasized that there is no mass counter-offensive operation on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine now because the troops are conserving forces:

“It is necessary to completely exhaust the enemy, deprive him of the opportunity to replenish supplies. This also applies to the south of Ukraine, where they are now transferring forces. We allow them to increase the grouping on the right bank of the Dnipro River in a dosed manner, without exceeding the number to which we could not respond. At the same time, our artillery is destroying enemy ammunition depots, command and control points, and enemy logistic routes. We know our forces and allow them to concentrate their troops in a safe system”.

He also emphasized that the rate of resource spending in Russia is much higher than in Ukraine. The pace of replenishment of these resources are not stable:

“Resources in personnel is a problem that is practically insoluble for Russians. They are already going to fight using not qualified troops. These are prisoners and half-pensioners. People who go or agree to sign a contract solely in order to receive some money in the conditions of a virtual shutdown of most of the Russian economy. It affects critically at huge unemployment leading to loss of jobs.”

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