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This information comes from the U.S. Department of Defense’s latest assessment of Beijing’s military capabilities, as well as comments made by a former official to Politico.
The report reveals that China has significantly expanded its nuclear stockpile, adding at least 100 warheads in the past year, bringing its total to over 600. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aims to surpass the 1,000-warhead mark by the end of the decade. A senior U.S. defense official, speaking anonymously, stated that this rapid buildup aligns with China’s broader goals to modernize and strengthen its nuclear forces. The PLA is focusing on the development of advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to increase the survivability and effectiveness of its nuclear arsenal. Additionally, China has shown interest in creating new conventional ICBMs capable of targeting Hawaii, Alaska, and the continental United States.
China continues to adhere to a “no first use” nuclear doctrine, indicating that it will not use nuclear weapons unless attacked first. This policy suggests that Beijing’s primary focus is on deterrence and maintaining the ability to respond to a major counterattack. However, analysts warn that the growing size and sophistication of China’s nuclear capabilities indicate a long-term strategy of enhancing its global military influence.
The report also highlights a lack of transparency in China’s defense spending. While official figures are released annually, U.S. and Western officials believe the actual expenditures are significantly higher. The Pentagon estimates that China’s defense budget is at least 40% larger than reported, amounting to between $330 billion and $450 billion in 2024. Despite this, U.S. defense spending remains unmatched globally. President Joe Biden’s proposed budget for 2024 stands at $880 billion, and further increases are anticipated as Congress finalizes its allocations.
China’s nuclear policy has also been a source of tension on the global stage. Unlike the U.S. and Russia, China has declined to engage in arms limitation talks, arguing that its arsenal is far smaller than those of the two leading nuclear powers. For context, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reports that as of January 2023, Russia possessed 5,889 nuclear warheads, while the United States had 5,244.
In earlier reports, the Pentagon noted that China had already constructed approximately 100 nuclear warheads by 2023, signaling a consistent and rapid pace of development. The latest findings raise concerns about Beijing’s intentions and the implications for global security, as the PLA continues to pursue advancements in missile systems, strategic capabilities, and overall military readiness.
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