Today at 17:12
According to information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russian troops are concentrating their main offensive efforts not only in the Pokrovsk direction in Donetsk region but also in the Kupiansk direction.
Thus, over the past day, the enemy attacked the positions of Ukraine’s Defense Forces eight times in the Kupiansk direction near the settlements of Kindrashivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Novooosynove, Pishchane, Lozova, and Zahryzove.
Russians are also attempting assaults in the north of Donetsk region—in the Lyman and Siversk directions. The main goal here is to break through to the area of the city of Lyman, which is a strategic and logistical hub and a key defense point for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The second goal is to create opportunities for the operational encirclement of the Ukrainian grouping in the Siversk area.
Regarding the Kupiansk direction: Kupiansk is the second-largest railway hub in the Kharkiv region and also a major road junction. South of the city is the settlement of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, which is a major railway junction where railway lines converge in five directions.
The Russians are interested in the largest railway station, Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, as it would improve logistics and increase the railway transport capacity, which is significantly higher than that of road transport. This ensures greater speed and volume of military cargo transportation. All of this is necessary for the further movement of this group along the Oskil River toward the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk grouping.
In my opinion, the Russian occupiers are less interested in advancing deeper into the Kharkiv region than in breaking through to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to create a threat of its operational encirclement and reach the administrative borders of Donetsk region.
The main task of the occupiers is a possible flank encirclement of the Ukrainian grouping in Donetsk region—essentially a repetition of the events of 2022 when the Lyman grouping of the Russian army was considered the most combat-capable. Therefore, the situation is quite difficult.
Currently, the occupiers have managed to expand their bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskil River in the northern part of the Kharkiv region.
According to the UK Ministry of Defense, Russia’s main focus is on the village of Dvorichna. Intense battles between Ukrainian and Russian forces are ongoing in this sector of the front. Additionally, fighting continues for the village of Zapadne, which is located 4 km west of the Oskil River.
“Russia is almost certainly trying to pressure the logistics hub of Kupiansk, also located on the Oskil River, about 12 km south of the bridgehead. Russian forces already control supply lines to the east and south of the city and are likely attempting to seize control of the northern supply routes to the city,” the UK Ministry of Defense notes.
Expanding their presence on the western bank of the Oskil River in the Dvorichna area, the occupiers intend to form a strike force capable of flanking Ukrainian units in the Vovchansk area.
According to the coordinator of the “Information Resistance” group, Kostiantyn Mashovets, the bridgehead resembles a “three-fingered wedge” in the areas of Novomlynsk, Dvorichna, and further south, extending from the river northwestward. At the same time, some Ukrainian units continue to hold the western bank of the Oskil River in certain areas within the enemy’s bridgehead, which clearly restrains their further actions.
“The further active actions of Russian troops regarding the ‘cut-off’ [northern] part of the Ukrainian bridgehead on the Oskil River are evidently linked to operations in the sector of the 6th Combined Arms Army, where they managed to break through the Oskil and approach the outskirts of the Kupiansk-Zaooskillya area,” he noted.
In addition to the existing bridgehead in the Dvorichna area, the enemy is attempting to construct pontoon crossings at several other sections of the Oskil River.
According to the deputy commander of the 429th Separate Regiment of Unmanned Aviation Systems “Achilles,” Maliarevych, the occupiers are constantly trying to transport weapons and personnel across the Oskil River using rafts and boats to attack Ukrainian positions. However, they are not yet able to transport heavy equipment across the river. Nevertheless, they are working to establish pontoon crossings.
Recently, the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group reported that Russian forces attempted to cross the Oskil River in the Kupiansk region. The Defense Forces struck and destroyed the enemy.
It is noted that in the Kupiansk direction, the Russian army conducted offensive actions near the settlements of Petropavlivka and Zahryzove.
The tactic of small infantry groups during assaults remains unchanged. The enemy tries to advance through gaps between Ukrainian units. They rarely conduct frontal attacks on a single unit and instead attempt to accumulate small infantry groups in forest belts or individual buildings in settlements. Once they successfully gather, they launch further assaults from new positions.
Additionally, the occupiers continue using terror tactics against civilians. In January alone, they carried out over 3,600 strikes on settlements in the Kupiansk region. As a result of these attacks, 22 people were injured, and four were killed.
According to a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, one of the enemy’s objectives in Kharkiv region is to destabilize the situation and spread panic in Ukraine. He added that Russian propaganda would soon actively work to further destabilize the situation.
The Russian plan aims to create panic and chaos, adding extra pressure on central and local budgets. They also seek to paralyze Ukraine’s logistics system. “Ukrzaliznytsia” (Ukrainian Railways) and road networks will be forced to function as evacuation routes rather than meeting the Defense Forces’ needs for personnel, military equipment, and supplies in combat zones.
And Russia’s primary goal is to pressure Ukraine’s military-political leadership. The Kremlin threatens to expand combat zones if Kyiv does not agree to “peace negotiations” on Russia’s terms.
The situation in the Kharkiv direction remains difficult but under control.
Military and political analyst Dmytro Sniehyrov.
