Lukashenko is maneuvering between how not to actively enter into a war against Ukraine and demonstrating loyalty to Putin, – political strategist

Alexander Lukashenko. Photo:

Against the background of intensified nuclear blackmail, which is increasingly heard from the Kremlin, especially on the eve of the Global Peace Summit, Alexander Lukashenko also decided to emphasize his own importance. This is precisely what is associated with recent publications in the Belarusian media with photos of additional fuel tanks on fighter jets, which they tried to pass off as nuclear warheads. But such a demonstration is not only a desire to “scare” the world community, but rather a fear of Putin. Lukashenko is afraid of Putin, and he was forced to do this. This is the opinion of political strategist Boris Tizenhausen on air on the FREEDOM TV channel.

According to the expert, Lukashenko was seriously intimidated a year ago, when he came to Moscow on May 9.

“Lukashenko’s last visit to Russia on May 9 resulted in a serious deterioration in his health. Remember, he was driving some kind of electric car there, and then he became really ill. It was then, after this visit, that he seriously lost control. Belarusian Telegram channels and insider channels wrote that he was “harassed.” It was then that they made him understand that the next time could be fatal. After this, Lukashenko greatly changed his attitude towards his defense, sent Kolenka (the youngest son of Alexander Lukashenko – ed.) to China to study, and flew repeatedly to Africa and the Middle East. That is, they transferred their assets there with their eldest son. But, in general, Lukashenko was scared, and very seriously,” the expert recalled.

According to Boris Tizenhausen, while he fears Putin, the Belarusian dictator is also afraid of openly going to war against Ukraine. The expert connects this with the weapons that Ukraine already has in its arsenal.

“I think many people remember how at the beginning of the war, for the first six months or a year, Russian planes launched missiles at us from the territory of Belarus. Imagine for a second what it would be like now. The distance here is the shortest. Lukashenko refused this because they made it clear to him that this will happen again, and all your Mozyr oil refinery, “Machulishchi” and your airfields will simply be destroyed,” the political strategist noted.

Therefore, the Belarusian dictator has to maneuver between “not actively entering the war and at the same time continuing to make some promises to Putin.”

“And what remains for him is when Putin kicks him in the ass, he goes somewhere to the border with Lithuania or there to the Suwalki corridor, listens to Khrenin’s report on camera (Viktor Khrenin, Minister of Defense of Belarus – ed.) about how they will capture something there. Plus he sends out some fake messages about copters, drones that attack him, about sabotage groups. But in parallel with this, and this is important, he says – we cannot attack Ukraine, everything there is mined right down to the border. That is, he plays such a role – to scare,” the expert believes.

He also emphasizes that Lukashenko is funny in this role. But he does this on purpose, signaling to the West that he has to do this.

The political strategist also notes that Putin also does not have any particularly effective levers of pressure on Lukashenko in order to “press” him to the point where the Belarusian dictator will completely give up control over the territory of Belarus, and Putin’s troops will again use it to launch missiles at Ukraine.

“I think that Lukashenko convinced Putin that if this happens again, then Belarusian volunteers will enter the territory of Belarus. Belarus will become an absolutely clear military target. And everything that was handed over to us (HIMARS, ATACMS and other types of weapons) will all fly and destroy all the military installations where the Russians will be based. And not only Russians. Lukashenko, I think, understands this very clearly. Therefore, this is still not happening, and I hope that it will not happen,” says Boris Tizenhausen.

Read also: Belarus statement on nuclear readiness inspection emerges to support Russia’s efforts to disrupt Western aid for Ukraine — ISW

Let us recall that earlier a political expert, a serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) Alexander Antonyuk, expressed the opinion that the Russian Federation could use provocations to attract Belarus to the war against Ukraine. Nevertheless, Lukashenko will make every effort to drag out this process, recognizing that the outcome will likely not be favorable to the aggressors.