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Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warn that stopping U.S. aid to Ukraine significantly increases Russia’s chances of winning the war. This could lead to intensified Russian aggression, the capture of new territories, and regional instability.
ISW reported this in its latest analysis.
In their report, analysts argue that stopping or delaying U.S. assistance to Ukraine could be a decisive factor in shifting the balance of power in Russia’s favor. Experts emphasize that Western support is crucial for Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian aggression effectively.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces actively use American systems such as Patriot, HIMARS, and ATACMS to defend against missile strikes, disrupt enemy logistics chains, and weaken Russia’s defense-industrial potential.
ISW has repeatedly stressed the importance of timely continuation of Western military aid to Ukraine and has observed a correlation between Russian battlefield successes and delays or interruptions in support.
“Russia may exploit the situation to seize more territory and increase pressure on Ukraine. This would not only bring Russia closer to victory but also embolden Russian leader Vladimir Putin, reinforcing his belief that he can achieve his strategic objectives—including control over Ukraine and other former Soviet republics, including NATO member states,” the report states.
The Kremlin is likely to intensify its military campaign in Ukraine and attempt to take advantage of any delay or halt in U.S. military aid, as it did in the spring of 2024.
ISW emphasizes that Putin, not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, remains the primary obstacle to ending the war.
“Zelenskyy has consistently reaffirmed his commitment to achieving a just and lasting peace in Ukraine through negotiations. He has repeatedly—most recently in a February 28 interview with Fox News—expressed willingness to make concessions regarding territory, Ukraine’s NATO membership, and even his own presidency to secure a fair and sustainable peace.
Putin and other senior Kremlin officials, on the other hand, have continuously reaffirmed their original war aims, which include Ukraine’s complete capitulation, the replacement of its current government with a pro-Russian puppet regime, and Ukraine’s commitment to neutrality and demilitarization—steps that would leave Ukraine nearly defenseless against future Russian aggression and destabilization,” ISW concludes.
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